Year: 2005

The blog has been a casualty of the end-of-semester-rush-off-for-the-holidays-get-ready-for-spring-semester season.

Here’s to a happy new year and more blog posts in the spring.

Oh. And a picture of me with my nephew Gage.

Munger’s back, or will be soon. Thank you, Chris, for the “heads up.”

Well, not really. But Cuidad de Mexico links to some funny suggestions. (Go there to see Lopez Obrador as Robin Hood.)

Also, the WPost is calling the upcoming election a Junkyard Dogfight. I question the appropriateness of that title. Would a tight race with negative campaigning and accusations of (ok, well, evidence of) corruption in say, Denmark, create a similar comparison? The article has several factual errors and some questionable interpretations. Tlalpan, working class? Tlalpan is HUGE, and has all types of residences, many of which are solidly middle class, not working class.

Also, the author continues to make a comparison between Chavez and Lopez Obrador, even though she mentions that a U.S. official questions the comparison. Lopez Obrador is on the left, but was clearly very responsible last April during the desafuero proceedings. Even AMLO understands the importance of foreign investment to Mexico.

In addition to the heightened role of the legislature and supreme court in Mexican politics, democratization has also increased the political importance of the governors of the 31 Mexican states.

I had never heard of CONAGO before last year, and indeed, I don’t know much about the organization’s history (though it appears the first conference was in 2001). However, this National Conference of Governors has been very active over the last couple of years. They meet regularly and hold special meetings on topics of importance. They also make policy suggestions for national policies, like social security.

Today, CONAGO is in the news again because the governors and Madrazo, Calderon, and the PVEM presidential candidate have signed an “acuerdo” with regard to the upcoming 2006 presidential elections. Notably, Carlos Slim, the wealthiest businessman in Mexico, was the promoter of the pact, in which candidates agreed to focus on putting forth proposals for economic growth and other good things for Mexico rather than negative campaigning. [Also notable was AMLO’s absence. This is not commented upon by the article.]

These pacts are common during campaign season, but of course are not binding. As many leaders of the UNT liked to point out to me during interviews last year, Fox and the other candidates in 2000 signed a pact with the independent labor union to signal their support for certain policies, and Fox has done relatively little on that front.

The more interesting point, for me, is that the governors, through CONAGO, are more often being discussed by the media as political actors at the national level. In real terms, however, it is not obvious how governors have real influence on national policy. Governors do not participate directly in the national policy-making process, for instance. Instead, their influence is probably, as Joy Langston argues, through the national party and the ability to place candidates on the lists or in plurality seats in the Chamber of Deputies and Senate.

If that’s the case (and I think Joy’s argument is convincing), then why do they bother with CONAGO? How does CONAGO help them achieve their policy goals? Is there no direct effect on policy but CONAGO instead gives Governors more publicity? [Since there’s no re-election, is CONAGO really a vehicle for ambitious governors to create national presence for national campaign bids?] So, what are the incentives for governors to participate in CONAGO, and why do they bother if their real influence is through other (partisan) channels?

I think it’s an interesting puzzle, and I think there’s a paper to be written there. But, I don’t know what the paper’s answer to the puzzle would be.

I wanna see.

Even before HP4.

And pointless.

How about some wetland preservation or levees instead?

You might receive an email like this….

Hello, Dr. Dion:

My name is XXXX XXXX. I was doing some online searching for some of my old high school friends and was wondering if you were the same Michelle Dion that graduated from Johnston High in Austin,TX. If you are not, please forgive my intrusion.

If you are, how have you been?!?! “Dr.”…pretty spiffy!…..

Yes it is, and I am fine, thank you.

This time, it was not a stalker or an unwelcome email, but next time it might be. And in this case, I am still sorry that I ruined this guy’s band drumstick in junior high with my spirited cowbell playing during “Tequila” at football games.

[Before you put it in the comments, Walken says: “Can we get a little more cowbell? It needs more cowbell…”]

Despite the lack of posts recently, I have been following the progress in the candidate selection process in Mexico for the 2006 elections. Here’s a quick summary, without links to articles.

The PRI
Madrazo “won” the PRI nomination for president. I qualified the victory with ” ” because he did not face a real challenger. Earlier this year, the main candidates with a chance against Madrazo formed TUCOM in order to defeat Madrazo’s nomination. Sometime this fall, TUCOM decided that Montiel would run against Madrazo and that the other members of TUCOM would not. Then, Montiel had to pull out of the race after allegations of financial shenanigans by his wife and children. The PRI ruled that nominations were closed and none of the other TUCOM candidates were allowed to register after Montiel withdrew.

That left Madrazo and Everado. (Yes, if you asked “Ever-who?,” you’ve got the right idea.) And Madrazo has won a pyrrhic victory. Not to mention that I think he’s one of the least electable PRIistas. Some of the TUCOMistas would have been better for the party.

The PAN
Felipe Calderon has the nomination. (“Whew…we dodged a bullet with Creel.”) While Calderon is more electable than Creel (who was a controversial Secretary of State under Fox and spearheaded the desafuero campaign), Calderon will still have to convince voters that he will be more effective than Fox has been. Since Calderon has maintained a healthy distance from Fox while still being part of the cabinet, that might be a plausible sell. Governability will be the big issue for voters and the PAN.

The PRD
There was never any doubt that Lopez Obrador would have the nomination, especially since he was uncontested within the party. Characterized as a populist by the U.S. press, Lopez Obrador’s popularity grew after the PAN and the PRI tried to have him convicted (and thus declared ineligible for election) for violating a court order to stop construction of a road in the D.F. while he was Mayor. AMLO will have to moderate his image while still appealing to the leftist base in Mexico City. While he’s popular in the D.F., outside of the capital city, his support is weaker. Many remember his controversial career as a PRIista in his home state of Tabasco.

So, who will be President in 2006? I’d call it a two way race between the PAN and PRD if I didn’t think that Madrazo had significant financial backing behind his candidacy. It’s still to early to call, and I haven’t seen any recent poll numbers of voters.

Because I’d sell it for that (and a downpayment for a house) in a heartbeat.

Posting has been infrequent of late due to the demands of work. A little bit of explanation before I try to get back into regular posting. Since coming back to Tech this fall, work has picked up. I’m teaching two courses in our Master’s program in International Affairs–methods and international political economy. I’ve also been getting lots of odds and ends for research projects tied up.

This is my fourth time teaching methods (twice at GT before and once in Mexico last year), so it is not really a new preparation. However, since I realized that I will be teaching methods for the foreseeable future, I am beginning to turn my lectures into powerpoint slides, which means that it has added some to my prep time. The investment will hopefully pay off in the future. Since I require the students to do modest linear regression papers, I spend a lot of time teaching the first semester students how to write a literature review, figure out how to use existing data sources to measure their variables, and then execute a small regression model. In some ways, I bring the work on myself by assigning the projects, but students have said that they really learn a lot from the process. I believe that learning statistics is like learning a foreign language; you don’t really become proficient until you have to use the language. Also, like languages, you can quickly forget what you know if you don’t apply your learning regularly.

The graduate seminar on international political economy is a new prep for me, though I have taught the undergraduate version on three occasions. Because this is a professional master’s program and our undergraduates are so well prepared, the graduate seminar is only slightly more advanced than the undergraduate version. It still takes time grading seminar papers every week.

In addition to teaching, I’ve been busy finishing up several projects. I’ve finished revisions and resubmitted two articles for publication, which have already been accepted. I’ve written a book review essay on five books for another journal. That leaves one more revise and resubmit to finish before the end of the year. I also have two papers that I’d like to revise a tiny bit before sending out to other journals (since I’m trying to keep up with Munger’s advice to always have three papers submitted to journals). Then, I need to finish revisions to my book project, including finishing the comparative historical chapter on Brazil, Argentina, and Chile that I began last spring. I can do all that between now and January 10, no?

Aside from that, all of a sudden, my service responsibilities have grown significantly. I’m on a hiring committee, have been on a new ad hoc committee for a big one day campus event, and will soon start work on developing the capstone course for our joint degree with Economics (that, at least, should be rewarding).

All of this is just to let regular readers (and lurkers) know that I haven’t forgotten or abandoned the blog. (And, unfortunately Paul decided to go on vacation at a time when I didn’t have time to browbeat him about it.) And in a way, it’s a good sign that I’ve been too busy with other things to blog as often, if you think about it.

The Mexican Supreme Court has overturned a 1994 decision and now declares that forced intercourse in a marriage is rape.

Guau. Progress.

Brian and I like to go to lucha libre matches while we’re in Mexico, and we went to our first match in 1998. Since then, we’ve been to about 6-10 nights of lucha at either Arena Mexico or Coliseo in Mexico City. When our friends visit us in Mexico, we usually take them to the luchas, and usually it is the highlight of their trip. Unfortunately, going to the luchas has become hip among the fresa crowd, and the last time we went to the fights in May 2005, there were lots of fresa-types.

Anyway, last night at dinner, I told the students about getting my picture taken with a famous Brazilian who wrestled in Mexico for a while before graduating to the big league in the U.S. Apparently, he is now doing some other ultimate fighting championship thing.

So, below is a picture of me with Gigante Silva. The photo was taken by my mother over Thanksgiving weekend 2001. Brian and I took her and my aunt to the artisan market in Mexico City. The market happens to be blocks from Arena Mexico, and we spotted Silva sitting down to lunch in the market restaurant.

I bothered him for an autograph and a picture, which I’ve put below. In the picture, I am standing on a dining room chair; I am 5’1″.

Tonight I enjoyed dinner with a handful of Georgia Tech students and one of my favorite colleagues and his family. He is the faculty advisor for International House (which I cannot find a link for on the GATech Housing page).

Since I was asked to bring a Latin American sweet for dessert, I opted for Abuelita hot chocolate and some conchas. Conchas are not my favorite Mexican pastry, but they are certainly traditional.

and

Since I wanted authentic pastries, I asked the staff at the local burrito joint where to find a Mexican bakery. Since I live in-town, I don’t get out to the areas where most of the immigrants live. They gave the the name of a major intersection, and Brian and I took a field trip in search of conchas and a good lunch on Saturday.

We found the conchas at a Mexican supermarket, and they turned out to be some of the better ones I’ve had, even compared to those I’ve had in Mexico.

Then, we stopped at my new favorite Atlanta-area Mexican restaurant, pictured below.

It’s near the intersection of Windy Hill Road and Atlanta Road in Smyrna, GA. The chicken was excellent, and they had a live duo (acordian and guitar) singing for a little girl’s birthday party. After we ate, the waitress admitted that she hadn’t wanted to wait on us because she didn’t think we spoke Spanish. And before we finished eating, another gringo couple stopped by our table to ask what we were having and then quickly told their waitress they wanted what we had (by pointing at our table). Anyway, the food was great.

The Border Film Project has distributed hundreds of disposable camaras to migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border and to Minutemen at outposts along the border. Once the camaras are returned in SASEs, they are developed and eventually should be turned into a gallery exhibit. So far, only a handful of photos are available online, but already it seems as though the project will produce some interesting documentary footage.

I received an email message regarding a new portal for news and analysis about Mexico. The focus is aparently on regional/sub-national news. The site is available in Spanish and Engligh and has all the worst of most Mexican websites (i.e., lots of flash, bad design, and funky layout). Hopefully, the content is worth wading through the presentation. I leave that for you to decide.

I’ve got to get back to grading papers.

A lot has happened in Mexican politics since my last post, and I have been buried under a pile of student papers and revise and resubmits for journals.

When I catch a minute, I will post some. In the meantime, global voices does a good job of collecting blogposts on Mexico or other countries.

Go, Chris.

The SNTSS (Social Security Workers’ Union) strike deadline is Sunday at 00:01. If workers of the social security union go on strike, this will effectively shut down the hospital and clinic system that over 40% of Mexicans rely upon for their medical care. In small towns, the IMSS clinic is usually the only clinic available. The union has said that they will continue to treat patients currently in the hospital and emergency cases, but all regular appointments and non-emergency treatment will have to be handled by other public institutions (i.e., the ISSSTE or the SSA). Frankly, the other public health care facilities are underfunded and have poor infrastructure. Government officials claim they have a “plan B” in the event of a strike.

Though last week it seemed like there was progress in the negotiations, things seem to have deteriorated this week. Tuesday and today, union members blocked three lanes of one of the major N-S avenues/highways on the eastern side of the city. Members of the union are still negotiating with IMSS representatives (later today), but one of the union reps has announced that a strike is likely. On the other hand, the government claims that a strike is not likely.

As in October 2003, the rank-and-file has rejected the contract reform proposal and has criticized the union leadership.

The SNTSS and PRD’s attempt to pass a counter-reform measure in Congress to rescind the August 2004 reform was unsuccessful; the PRI and PAN blocked the reform in committee.

Other member unions of the UNT, including UNAM and Telmex workers (and some smaller unions), and the SME (electrical workers’ union) have declared that they will also strike in support of the SNTSS if a contract agreement is not reached. (The SNTSS was one of the founding members of the UNT.) Essentially, many of these unions are in non-tradable industries or the service sector, and so a strike that includes all of these unions could have a significant impact on daily functioning of services and utilities.

Not surprisingly, the official labor sector (CT) is urging the SNTSS to avoid a strike. Member unions of the CT hold seats on the IMSS advisory board, and so technically, they are part of the ‘administration’ negotiating the contract with the SNTSS union.

In the midst of the conflict, today I have found out that a short article discussing the politics of social security reform over the last 15 years in Mexico has been accepted for publication (pending very minor revisions) in Foro Internacional, a widely-read Mexican journal. Unfortunately, they want the revisions by the end of the month so that it appears in the next issue, and I doubt there will be a tidy resolution to the conflict before then. (They may be on strike, or the union may ask for a delay, as it did in 2003. I really can’t guess what might happen this time.)

The Midwest Political Science Association is now sending faxes to remind me that the proposal deadline for the 2006 conference has been extended to October 17. Add this to the dozen or so emails.

Of course, the recent department level decision to not recommend Dan Drezner for tenure at U of Chicago has created quite a stir in the bloggosphere. As usual, we can rely on Chris to provide a useful round-up, including a link to Mungowitz’s comments on Poliblog.

As a junior faculty member, I have thought a lot about whether to blog and what to blog about. For me, I thought blogging would be a useful tool for me to write informally about research ideas and that it would create an incentive for me to keep up on what’s happening in my areas of research.

As an added bonus, I feel like my academic community has expanded beyond Georgia Tech. For instance, I have become re-acquainted with Paul and his research. I also feel like I know Chris and will be meeting him when he comes to Atlanta in January. I had an informative (and sobering) exchange with Munger, who I hadn’t talked to since my class at Duke years ago, about tenure expectations and job placement. I’ve received advice about the best way to handle statistical notation in my class presentations from several folks, including Steven Taylor and an anonymous friend from grad school. And, I’ve had a substantive discussion with Matthew Shugart about one of my research interests. [I should add that without the blog, Matthew, who is a leading scholar in my sub-discipline, might not have ever had a reason to visit my professional website except that he wondered, “Who is this Profesora Abstraida???”]

I think that, in my case, it is all about balance. I blog when I have time, and let it slip when I don’t. I know that blogging will not get me tenure or professional advancement–only my research will, and I distribute my blog efforts accordingly.

At the same time, Ann Althouse has a good point:

Time spent on a blog is visible in a way that time spent watching movies or talking with friends or reading mystery novels or engaging in physical exercise or playing with your kids or daydreaming is not. Those who worry about blogging or feel jealous of bloggers have that blog always there, so visible, planting tiny negative impulses in their heads day by day. Then some day, when they must make a decision about you, who knows what role the blog played?

How would my colleagues know that blogging has replaced cable TV ? Or that I now read fewer mystery novels? That blogging has actually increased the amount of time that I spend thinking about my professional life? I think having a (non-anonymous, public affairs-type) blog actually reflects a high level of engagement and professional seriousness. Lazy or uncreative people do not blog; they eat Cheetos and watch daytime TV. (I’m not calling all non-bloggers lazy; I’m just saying that blogging is probably one sign of high commitment.) If only more of our colleagues in political science would recognize that blogs can be a virtual academic conference, we might have a more lively discipline.

I have put on hold, however, my idea for a group comparative/IR blog because of promotion and tenure concerns. Last year, I had talked to several colleagues at other institutions that currently do not blog about creating a group blog that would focus on providing a political science perspective on international news (much like Matthew’s blog). Though I found a handful of junior faculty who were willing to participate as long as the group was large enough to allow flexibility (i.e., they would only have to post 1-2 times a week to keep it going), the Drezner decision has led me to reconsider. Some of the people who were interested are at top institutions who may not have blogging senior colleagues, and as long as those that will decide whether they get promoted or tenure do not blog, it’s not safe to assume that they will “get it.”