Year: 2005

The patron saint of Narcotraffickers…

In today’s La Jornada, there’s an interesting story about an informal tour of narcotraficantes that has sprung up in Sinaloa. Narcotraficantes are drug lords and traffickers.

According to the story, you can visit a small temple with a shrine to the patron saint of drug traffickers, Bandido “Generoso” Jesús Malverd. He was known for giving money back to the community. He’s been worshipped as a saint for over 130 years.

Image of patron saint in chapel in Sinaloa from La Jornada.

According to the story, in Culiacan the capital of Sinaloa, there is 1 car per every 4.5 inhabitants, while the national average is 1 car per 15. There are car dealers for Lincoln, Volvo, Toyota, Cadillac, and Hummer. According to one of the salesmen, it’s only by reputation that the cars are bought with drug money. Though he did admit that many paid with cash.

The story also talks about lavish homes with murals, columns, and all sorts of gaudy decoration. And many people walk about with a lot of diamonds and other ostentatious jewelry.

Drug trafficking began in Sinaloa at the beginning of the 20th century. According to the article, this was due to its proximity to the US, a country that prohibits many illicit substances. In the 1950s, wars between rivals were so common that Culiacan became known as a “Chicago con gangsters de huarache.” (Huaraches are traditional peasant sandals.)

One of the other interesting aspects of the drug trafficking culture is the music, which is not mentioned in the article. Narcocorridos are songs that tell the high tales of drug smuggling. They also have a long history. During the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917) corridos were songs that told stories related to the Revolution and its heros. The narcocorridos glamourize (mostly) the lives of drug runners. The most famous group is Los Tigres del Norte. They have an extensive discography. Below is an excerpt of one of my favorite Tigres songs, “Pacas de un Kilo”

In it, the singer mentions that he’s of a modest height, has a significant farm, and warns listeners that if they meet him, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t tell you his last names. You can find discs of Tigres hits online at Amazon. There’s also an interesting book about narcocorridos written by a guy who hitched rides with truckdrivers along the border. You can also listen to an NPR story about the group.

That’s your bit of Mexican cultural history for the month.

Fox announces Social Protection Institute

As part of Labor Day festivities, Fox announced the creation of a new Social Protection Institute. Since I’ve studied Mexican social security extensively, the new Institute is puzzling in many respects.

The new Institute is going to be housed in the Secretary of Social Development (SEDESOL) and more specifically in Fox’s targeted poverty alleviation program “Oportunidades.” This just doesn’t make public policy sense. Political sense, maybe, but from a public policy perspective, no.

Social “protection” in Mexico is provided mainly by two large social security institutions, the IMSS (private sector) and the ISSSTE (public sector). (Email me for a parts of my book ms if you’re interested in an overiew of 80 years of social security policy in Mexico.) The SEDESOL was originally created under Salinas to run his much maligned and much politically manipulated poverty alleviation program, PRONASOL (see my published paper on this).

PRONASOL morphed into Progresa under Zedillo, and then morphed again into Oportunidades under Fox. Granted, Progresa and Oportunidades have better reputations than PRONASOL (i.e., less corruption, manipulation for political ends, etc.), though recent research suggests that Progresa may have been politically maniuplated as well. (Here, I’m thinking of a paper presented by Berkeley Grad Student Tina Green at the MPSA meeting in Chicago, but since her paper isn’t online I can’t provide you a link…)

Fox’s poverty alleviation program (Oportunidades) is essentially an income transfer to poor families so that they can buy food, health care, etc. in the private market.

Anyway, the point is that Fox is creating this Institute within Oportunidades within the Social Development Ministry, rather than housing it either in one of the two social security institutes or creating some overarching coordinating institute. Targeted income tranfers to the poor are not “social protection” and it’s ludicrous to create an institute to “protect social security” inside one of the bureaucracies designed to replace formal social security programs.

This is just one more example of how social security (not just pensions in the U.S. sense, but health insurance, etc.) is being privatized piece by piece in Mexico and being replaced with targeted transfers to the poor, a la the U.S. welfare system. It reflects an overall shift in Mexico’s welfare regime toward a liberal model. (Again, if you want to hear more about this, email me for book chapters.)

So, from my point of view and a public policy perspective, creating this Institute in SEDESOL makes little sense. From a political point of view it makes tons of sense.

Why? Because the IMSS and to a lesser extent the ISSSTE bureaucracies have been opposed to efforts to privatize pensions, health care, and other benefits provided by these agencies. That’s why the Zedillo administration had to create a separate “think tank” to draft the 1995 pension privatization plan–to isolate it from IMSS and the unions. (But I digress….as one is likely to do when discussing your research.)

By creating an “Institute of Social Protection” separate from the institutions that have historically provided social protection, Fox can ensure that studies and policy proposals that come out of the Institute are more likely to promote privatization and similar reforms of social protection. Proposals are likely to emphasize targeted benefits for the poor, since that has been SEDESOL’s primary focus. Now, I’m not against benefits for the poor, but I am against politically manipulated policies that become new forms of clientelism. I’m also against such policies when they are proposed as replacements for traditional social security. This has been the tendency of late in Mexico.

In sum, Fox’s announcement of this new Institute should be viewed with the same skepticism as Bush’s claims that the’s going to “strengthen social security” through privatization.

More procrastination….

From Blogthings:

American Cities That Best Fit You:

60% Chicago

60% Honolulu

60% Los Angeles

60% Miami

60% Philadelphia

Which American Cities Best Fit You? and….

Your Inner European is Italian!

Who’s Your Inner European?

Professorial procrastination

Compliments of Dr. Crazy. My favorites from her list:

Read blogs.
Feel guilty about reading blogs and not commenting and not posting on your own blog, and so post on your blog about nonsense like alternatives to academic work.
Decide, at 11 PM at night, to clean out closet and sort laundry.
American Idol.
Re-read every single Judith Krantz/Anne Rice/etc. novel that you own from beginning to end.

While procrastinating doing #1, I read #4 and realized I missed the first 15 minutes of the results show, broadcast here in Mexico City 2 weeks late and on Sundays. (I was sad to see Nadia leave.)

Though I don’t like Krantz or Rice, I have quickly run through the stack of mysteries that I bought while in Chicago for the Midwest PSA meeting. Spent an hour today reading the beginning of David Brown’s first thriller. Poorly written pap, but thrilling nonetheless.

Labor Day & AMLO

Today’s Labor Day march brought about 100K people to the Mexico City zocalo. According to the press, about half represented the CTM, the largest union confederation formally affiliated with the PRI, and the other half represented independent labor unions.

Unions reiterated their opposition to proposed reforms to the Federal Labor Law. Reforms have been on the political agenda of political parties since the 1980s, but building consensus is difficult.

In other news, AMLO is confident that the charges against him will be dropped this week. I’m a little more skeptical. It will probably take longer than that to negotiate a deal.

George Bush on Social Security reform

From Reuters/Yahoo.

This will do nothing for the PRI’s credibility

Now, Chuayffet is saying Lopez Obrador should be given back his fuero. (I can’t resist, it just makes me think of Power’s mojo.)

According to La Jornada

El fracaso en el intento por inhabilitar al jefe de Gobierno del Distrito Federal provocó el cambio de discurso de Emilio Chuayffet Chemor, uno de los principales promotores de ese proceso, quien manifestó que los diputados “tenemos que devolverle el fuero. Andrés Manuel (López Obrador) debe gozar plenamente de su fuero”.

More later. I’m going out to see if I can find some AMLO souvenirs. Wish me luck.

UK seeks new “Q”

As a Bond fan (the books and the Sean Connery version), I enjoyed this story on Marketplace about a job announcement for a modern Q.

Pierce Brosnan is o.k., but there must be someone else who would be better. Brian and I regularly debate the alternatives. Who do you think would be the next great Bond? I’m partial to Hugh Jackman.

Minutemen followup

NPR’s ATC had this follow-up story to the Minutemen in Arizona.

One picture says it all

Below is a photo of Fox and his First Lady taken yesterday. Note the look of disdain and supressed grimace on the faces of the two social security workers behind them.

Photo in print and e-editions of La Jornada.

The political fallout…

What happens when a political leader convinces members of his party and those of another to pursue one strategy but then uses a different strategy himself? Lots of finger pointing.

Wednesday and yesterday President Fox indicated that he would meet with Lopez Obrador in an effort to clear up the political problems between the two men. Fox appeared to be relieved that things are going well so far.

Yesterday, accusations began to fly on all sides.

Beginning with the PRI. The PRI is now worried about their credibility and that they will be left holding the desafuero bag:

Los cambios de la estrategia gubernamental sobre Andrés Manuel López Obrador propiciaron ayer un ambiente de preocupación y encono contra Vicente Fox y el Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) entre las filas del priísmo duro que impulsó la inhabilitación del gobernante capitalino. Incluso, entre ese ambiente comenzaron a surgir voces para convocar de manera urgente y sin agenda a una reunión con Roberto Madrazo y su seguidor, Emilio Chuayffet, con objeto de explicar la naturaleza del arreglo político con Fox y el blanquiazul, porque tal hecho coloca al Revolucionario Institucional en una profunda crisis de credibilidad.

PRIista Chuayfett, and congressional leader of the PRI desafuero vote, now says:

“La política y la legalidad no están excluidas, de suerte que podemos encontrar soluciones a problemas políticos, sin que esto represente truncar la legalidad”.

This from the party that claimed before that the law was the law, that no one was above the law, and that the desafuero was a legal not political question. No wonder they are worried about credibility.

Even better is the quote from a PRIista who voted against the deafuero in early April:

“Cuando yo dije que la historia me iba a dar la razón, pensé que sería dentro de 20 años, pero me la dio en 20 días”.

Trans: When I said that historia was going to prove me right, I thought it would be in 20 years, but it was within 20 days.

President of the PRI and presidential hopeful, Roberto Madrazo, criticized Fox’s recent announcements, saying the President’s announcement was strange and that:

“…después de que hace cuando menos 12 meses se vive una confrontación estéril entre el Presidente y el jefe de Gobierno, que ha sumido al país en una verdadera confusión que comienza a amenazar la gobernabilidad democrática.”

So now it’s Fox who is threatening governability in Mexico. Interesting twist, if you believe the PRIistas.

And the PAN has not been unaffected either.

Yesterday, in Congress, several PANistas openly criticized Fox and Secretary of State Creel. One of the PANistas who actively supported the desafuero in the Chamber of Deputies pleaded with his colleagues to remain loyal to the party:

Desde la noche del miércoles y la mañana de este jueves, antes de la sesión ordinaria, el ánimo en la bancada del PAN era de desconcierto y enojo, a tal grado que en la plenaria matutina el mismo Juan de Dios Castro que hace 22 días, vociferante, defendió desde tribuna el juicio de procedencia y argumentó que podía adivinar las ”intenciones criminales” del jefe de Gobierno, ayer pidió a sus compañeros ”lealtad” al partido y respaldar la decisión del presidente Fox.

Some PANistas are even calling for Creel’s resignation. Included in this group is PANista Juan Molinar Horcasitas, who also happens to be a political scientist with a Ph.D. from UCSD.

Polling and social security

Paul has a very nice comparison of question framing, social security, and the interpretation of poll results at the Public Brewery. He shows how Fox frames questions in a way that is more likely to get responses in favor of Bush’s plan, while ABC/WP pollsters have a more neutral frame. He also compares the leads used in the poll stories.

This is a very good example. I’m going to bookmark it for the next time I teach American Government in Comparative Perspective (yes, I do teach that occasionally, as strange as it seems).

Profesora quoted on Slate.com

Bidisha Banerjee writes in “In Location Parentis”:

La Profesora Abstraída’s Michelle Dion, who lives in Mexico City, points out that Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, an ex-member of the PRI party, which opposes Fox, has warned Obrador “that his opponents would still want to remove him from the 2006 race and that ‘accidents happen.’

Note…PML was also a member of the PRD and recently attended the AMLO March of Silence. The statement was less a threat and more a friendly warning.

Cabinet reshuffle opens way for dialogue, maybe

I wouldn’t want to be too optimistic, but the stalemate between Fox and AMLO might be nearing an end and dialogue might be near. As I mentioned yesterday, AMLO asked to meet with the President to discuss the political situation. Yesterday, Fox agreed to meet one-on-one with the Mexico City Mayor.

In part, this is possible because Fox accepted the resignation yesterday of the AG and 12 of his closest staff, including the Deputy AG who handled the case against AMLO. The former general who held the AG position said he did not want to be a political obstacle to Fox and the resolution of the crisis created by the desafuero. AMLO was pleased to hear about the resignation.

According to legal experts, the AG’s office has until Thursday to re-present its case against Lopez Obrador before the judge that rejected it last week. According to Fox’s speech, the AG’s office, under new leadership, will need to thoroughly review the file.

Disturbing, though, is the warning from ex-PRIsta, ex-PRDista Porfirio Muñoz Ledo who appeared with Lopez Obrador at the March of Silence on Sunday. He warned AMLO that his opponents would still want to remove him from the 2006 race and that “accidents happen.” Here’s his exchange with the reporter from La Jornada:

LJ: ¿Violencia?, ¿magnicidios?

PML: No quiero ser catastrofista y espero que nada ocurra, pero 1994 está muy cercano. Por ello, hay que reducir enconos y promover diálogos. Podemos hacer pactos indispensables antes de las elecciones.

That last bit is a reference to the assination of the President Secretary General (2nd in command) of the PRI and the PRI’s presidential candidate in 1994 in the months leading up to the election.

President Fox addresses nation, AG & some staff step down

Last night, Fox addressed the nation on television to announce that the Attorney General has resigned. First, here are the important parts of his speech. Analysis will follow.

Fox said:

El Presidente de México cree en la democracia y ha luchado gran parte de su vida, con millones de ciudadanos, para hacerla realidad en su patria.

Hoy, estoy convencido de que no hay mejor camino para hacer de México un país más libre, más participativo y más justo.

Fortalecer nuestra naciente democracia es la más alta responsabilidad que nos exige la realidad política del país. A todos nos compete contribuir a esta noble causa.

Siempre será mejor para nuestro México nuestra disposición al diálogo y no al desafío; nuestro propósito de conciliar y no de dividir. Nuestro futuro como país será promisorio si somos capaces de coincidir en lo fundamental en vez de confrontar estérilmente.

Como Jefe del Estado mexicano me corresponde promover la unidad del pueblo en defensa de las instituciones, de la legalidad y de los valores democráticos.

Quiero informarles que he decidido aceptar la renuncia que me ha presentado el Procurador General de la República, Rafael Macedo de la Concha….

… La Procuraduría revisará de manera exhaustiva el expediente de consignación del Jefe de Gobierno del Distrito Federal, buscando preservar dentro del marco de la ley la mayor armonía política del país.

Como gobernante, una de mis mayores preocupaciones ha sido ampliar los derechos de las y los ciudadanos, y adaptar nuestra legislación al derecho internacional.

En la iniciativa de Reforma Integral de Justicia y Seguridad, presentada por el Ejecutivo el año pasado, ya se contemplan la garantía de presunción de inocencia y la autonomía del Ministerio Público.

Además, he decidido enviar a la consideración del Congreso, una iniciativa para resguardar los derechos de los ciudadanos sujetos a juicio, en tanto no se dicte sentencia final y definitiva.

Ambas reformas contribuirán a dar certeza jurídica a los ciudadanos que enfrentan procesos legales.

Como Presidente de un país democrático, asumo mi deber de garantizar, en el ámbito de mis atribuciones, que el proceso electoral del 2006 sea legítimo y que cada partido político participe en un ámbito de apertura, de respeto, sometidos todos a la ley y en defensa de nuestras instituciones.

Mi Gobierno a nadie impedirá participar en la próxima contienda federal.

El compromiso que todos compartimos es a favor de la democracia y sólo con apego a la ley y mediante el diálogo podremos alcanzar la unidad y el progreso.

He begins by mentioning the importance of strengthening Mexico’s young democracy. Then, he says he has accepted the AG’s resignation. The AG’s office will thoroughly review the AMLO file to determine the next step. He mentions to legal reforms that he has or will submit to Congress. One would provide for the presumption of innocence, and the other would protect accused rights (presumably including political rights, like the right to run for office) until a case is resolved definitively. He claims that his government will not prevent anyone from participating in the 2006 elections.

Until a new AG is formally approved by Congress, Fox’s legal advisor will be heading the AG’s office.

Should I be nervous?

That someone at the State Department keeps reading my blog?

Desafuero update….

…what you’ve all been waiting for.

AMLO returned to work on Monday. The President’s office and the Deputy Attorney General continue to claim that he should not be at work. While legal scholars say otherwise.

The judge in the case rejected the AG’s bid to bring charges against AMLO without arresting him by allowing a couple of PANistas to pay his bail. The AG’s office will have to resubmit the charges, and formally arrest AMLO. The AG was hoping to avoid an arrest, which would enable AMLO to play the martyr.

There’s been more talk of ‘negotiation’ and ‘dialogue.’ AMLO called for a dialogue with President Fox during the March of Silence on Sunday. Since then, the President’s office has indicated they are willing to meet with AMLO when and where he proposed. Various leaders of the PAN and PRI support the idea of a dialogue. Of course, many people are skeptical of Fox’s sincerity.

And I thought my visa delays were bad…

Ok. I’ve been waiting for my work visa here in Mexico since August, in part due to a mistake by the Secretary for Foreign Relations here. They sent my paperwork to El Paso, rather than Austin. And since then, I’ve had to give them my passport and photos, etc. several times. For instance, my photos were accepted one month, then rejected a month later because my hair was down even though you could clearly see my ears.

Anyway, the U.S. Embassy here in Mexico city usually processes 2,000 appointments for a visa to go to the U.S. for work or vacation per day. In the entire country, they process 5,000 per day.

Due to staffing cuts, the waiting period for an appointment will be almost 2 months. After than, the time to receive your visa will be another 5 weeks. People who call the 1-900 number (yes, Mexicans pay by the minute) today, will not get an appointment until the 11th of July. Renewals will not get an appointment until June 13. And student or work visas will be seen after May 9th.

Some of the delays are surely due to heightened security checks, but others are caused by the staff cuts (probably because of budget constraints). Overall, however, the delays are likely to hurt commerce as families can’t take that trip to Disney World and business reps can’t attend meetings to expand cross-border trade.

Mexican Senators have been busy bees….

Yesterday, commissions discussed reforms to the financing of Pemex, the state oil company.

They also approved reforms to the extradition law.

Today, they plan to approve legislation to allow Mexicans abroad to vote.

How many attended AMLO’s rally?

According to the Secretary of Public Security of the DF, 1.2 million attended. According to the national Secretary of Public Security, only 120,000 attended.

What does it look like to you?

Image from La Jornada front page.

Apparently, the march also generated good business for the informal sector, selling t-shirts, banners, and masks. Maybe the desafuero will actually help the economy (read: incredulous).

Image from La Jornada.

The short guy is former president Salinas and the tall guy is Fox.