Just what Texas needs…
More crazy people with guns. Let me repeat.
[And I say that as a proud Texan.]
Year: 2005
More or less free speech…
It seems that demonstrations follow Fox everywhere these days. First, in Acapulco. Now, at a private university in the D.F.
In this case, a 17 year old high school student held up a protest sign (“Se consumó el desafuero, no permitiremos que se consuma la democracia”) and yelled at the President during an event at a local private university. (She attends the high school associated with the university.) Other students told her to shut up. And eventually, she was removed from the event, even after presenting her ID to prove she was a student there.
[Update 4/6/205: The student will not be punished in any way, after school officials met with her, her father, and their lawyers.]
Desafuero in the Supreme Court
The Court will hear both cases brought before it regarding the desafuero. In the meantime, however, the Attorney General’s office can present the case to a judge, and request a warrant for AMLO’s arrest. The AG’s office is expected to request the warrant sometime next week.
While the court considers the case, both side have begun a public relations campaign to convince the public that they will win their case. As you might imagine, this involves overly optimistic interpretations of any small Court announcement by both sides.
Gender bias in academia?
Of course. Though many of my male colleagues are sensitive, warm-fuzzy types (not all, but probably a greater proportion than you’d find in the general population), many still don’t understand the subtle gender biases in academia, some of which they inadvertantly help to perpetuate.
Take for example, the comment made to me by a new colleague on hearing that I had just received my Ph.D. before starting my first tenure-track position: “Congratulations. In my field, it takes a white, male an average of seven years to get his first tenure-track position.” Well, I could have retorted (had I not been so dumbfounded) that his field is also one of very little practical use these days…
Legislators try to resolve differences the old-fashioned way…with a nice brawl in the lower chamber of Congress
According to the coverage in El Universal, some PRDistas came into the Chamber with a large banner in support of the Mayor which they proceeded to hang on the wall near the PANista wing of the Chamber. The PANistas objected because several of the PRDista group did not appear to be legislators.
PRDista Duarte stepped forward to stay that he, indeed, is a legislator (he also chaired the desafuero committee, so he’s not an obscure legislator). PANista Rubén Torres proceed to spit in his face. Torress also apparently spit on another PRDista named Troba. And then the shoving began. See for yourself.
Photos from La Reforma, all subscription content, all the time
Security was called in to separate the legislators.
Shortly thereafter, all parties involved denied any physical altercation had occurred. (Of course, this is typical….)
Good thing. If someone wanted to press charges, they could be desafuero-ed themselves.
This is why I study Latin American politics, in part anyway.
Mexican president visits Acapulco
When President Fox visited Acapulco earlier this week to inaugurate a new tourist market (heck, the entire city is a tourist market), he was not greeted by the Mayor, who is a member of the PRD. The Mayor said it was a personal decision out of loyalty to AMLO. The Governor of the state, who is also a PRD member, did host the President, and they exchanged thinly veiled niceties regarding the desafuero:
Zeferino Torreblanca dio la bienvenida al mandatario federal con un mensaje en donde puntualizó que “la transición hacia una nación de instituciones es un complejo proceso que requiere paciencia, tolerancia y desprendimiento de todos los protagonistas”.
Y lo llamó a “profundizar las coincidencias, hacer a un lado las divergencias y lograr que las cosas sean más pactadas que forzadas”.
En respuesta, el presidente Fox agradeció al gobernador Torreblanca la invitación a visitar Acapulco, el recibimiento respetuoso que recibió y la disposición del mandatario local a trabajar por las instituciones, el crecimiento económico y el bienestar de los mexicanos.
That exchange is reported in an article from La Jornada .
The article focuses more on the fact that politicians and other attendees to the President’s formal visit were made to remove small pins that expressed their support for AMLO. The pins were small red, green, and white striped ribbons like the red ribbons and pink ribbons worn in support of AIDS and breast cancer research funding. Normally, the pins are just worn on Mexican Independence Day in September; I have a couple that have tiny bottles of Corona and Tequila glued to the ribbon. But recently, the ribbons have become a sign of support for AMLO, and apparently anyone wearing such a ribbon was required by the President’s security team to remove the ribbon before entering the area of the photo op.
While elites inside the photo op were not allowed to display “their colors,” plenty of protestors were waiting outside with signs protesting the desafuero.
It seems that freedom of expression is a right that is selectively protected.
Is the desafuero really a test of Mexican democracy?
I must admit, I’m against the desafuero. However, I’m also tired of everyone framing it as a test of Mexican democracy. As if our conceptions of democracy are so limited. Or that mob rule is the same as democracy. Fujimori in Peru had loads of public support, but he was not very democratic.
Now that the debate has moved to the Supreme Court, the court case protesting the desafuero brought by the Mexico City General Assembly against the national Chamber of Deputies is also being called a test for democracy. A test of the independence of the judicial branch. Yes, it is a test of the judicial branch’s independence. But, unfortunately, Mexico has such ill-defined institutions, that it would be hard for the Court to pass a judgement based purely on law or precedent. The Constitution just isn’t clear. And so, yes, the Court will probably make a politicized decision. And, yes, it is worrying that the Court has delayed their ruling.
But will the Court’s decision be some sort of final litmus test for Mexican democracy? No. Our conception of democracy is so much more complex, or at least it should be.
Wierd Toy of the Month at the Public Brewery
Paul Brewer has a nice blog feature: “The Wierd Toy of the Month.” This month’s winner is a Talking Jesus Doll. I agree, that’s just wierd.
He has winners from previous months, as well.
Secretary of Finance praises AMLO’s restraint
The Mexican Secretary of Finance recently praised the restraint of AMLO and his followers. Francisco Gil Diaz said that Lopez Obrador and the PRD had been mature in their decision not to encourage disruptive protests. Instead, AMLO and the PRD have encouraged non-violent demonstrations, and specifically urged bus and taxi drivers not to disrupt streets and highways in protest.
Secretary Gil says that the restraint of the PRD has helped minimize market volatility in the last week. The Mexican stock market even gained some of the value it lost immediately before the desafuero of AMLO last Thursday.
All this highlights something I said last weekend, that the political elites will take extreme positions and make fierce proclamations, but that in the end, even the left is worried about the market and foreign investors.
An increasing role for the Mexican Supreme Court?
I don’t study courts, nor has the Mexican Supreme Court ever seemed like something worth studying. The Mexican Supreme Court has been like most other courts in Latin America, weak compared to the other branches of government. However, I’ve noticed over the months that I’ve been here that political actors are regularly appealing to the court to intervene in legal (but really political) disputes.
For instance, the government passed a law last August which essentially overrode the pension provisions of the labor contract of the workers of the national social security institute. The union is strong, independent (sort of), and has fiercely opposed efforts to privatize medical services. The union also has very generous pension benefits. Unable negotiate reductions in these benefits, the government passed a law which would effectively limit pension benefits. The union has appealed the case in the court system, claiming that Congress can not overturn benefits negotiated in a labor contract. I mentioned it briefly before.
Another example. According to labor law, government employees must all belong to one labor federation: the FSTSE. The FSTSE is an official union allied with the PRI, and has been, quite frankly, a poor defender of workers’ interests. A leader of one of the teachers’ unions, a member union of FSTSE, began organizing a dissident union, la FEDESSP. This leader also happens to be the Secretary General of the PRI and does not get along with the President of the PRI either. As far as I can tell, she doesn’t get along with many people. She organized the FEDESSP and the Secretary of Labor under the Fox administration granted them legal status, contrary to labor law. The case was considered by the Supreme Court, and they ruled the labor law requiring all government workers to belong to the same Federation unconstitutional.
Since the new Federation (FEDESSP) claims to represent 8 of 10 government workers, it then proceeded to sue the FSTSE for its land, offices, and other property, claiming that the property should be transferred to the new Federation. I mentioned this court case before.
Which….brings us to the latest case. The Mexico City general assembly has gone to the Supreme Court to claim that the Chamber of Deputies violated the Mexican Constitution when they stripped the Mayor of his immunity. The Deputies are countering the claims in front of the court. The court is apparently divided over the issue. Even before the desafuero, the court had its doubts.
Merrill Lynch fears that desafuero has made AMLO stronger candidate…
Well, duh. According to an article in La Jornada, Merrill Lynch analysts sent a report to investors last week indicating that the desafuero would have two effects: to unify the PRD around AMLO as a presidential candidate and to increase his name recognition throughout the country.
For investors, those things could only be bad. But how bad?
Yes, the PRI and PAN are shooting themselves in the foot by prosecuting AMLO. They are making him look like a political victim. That only makes million of Mexicans rally around the underdog.
To what lengths will the PRI, PAN, and PRD go to win this political battle, and what will be the effects on the economy?
I think all the parties recognize the importance of foreign investment and understand how potentially destabilizing investment flight can be. They learned that in 1995. The PRI and PAN shouldn’t believe they could blame AMLO for an economic crisis created by captial flight in response to the desafuero. They will stop short of creating enough chaos to shake markets. Even the PRD is sensitive to foreign investment and the perception of instability. AMLO has certainly tried to calm markets by repeatedly urging his supporters to be nonviolent. The parties will reach a negotiated outcome before real instability becomes likely.
Whether the markets understand this, is another question. Whether investors will panic prematurely is unclear. Any crisis will be self-fulfilled prophesy by the investors, rather than a rational response to any real threat of instability. But isn’t that usually the case? Markets are skittish, and decidely not very rational. I think market sentiments are the real threat to the Mexican economy, not the parties or the desafuero.
So what is the penalty for ignoring a court order in Mexico, anyway?
AMLO’s alleged crime is disregarding a court order. What is the penalty for this “ilícito no grave” (minor offence)? A fine of 200-150 U.S. dollars and one to eight years of jail time, which would be commutable.
According to the assistant attorney general in charge of the case: “La foto tras las rejas vale mucho, tiene costo…” or in other words, the photo behind bars is worth a lot, has a cost.
When does AMLO lose his political right to vote or run for office?
As soon as the judge issues an order for his arrest. And he only recovers his rights when he is exonerated. (Though, as I mentioned earlier, AMLO can appeal to keep his rights until he is actually convicted.)
I guess that means AMLO can’t legally “run for president from jail.”
AMLO to be jailed in Matamoros?
According to articles in two Mexican newspapers today, AMLO’s legal team fears that AMLO might be transferred to a federal prison in Matamoros (on the Texas border) once he is arrested. On the one hand, this has been done before to isolate a prisoner who also happened to be a politician. It would also potentially neutralize AMLO from his staff and the public. It would theoretically be justified to protect AMLO’s physical safety.
On the other hand, it would heighten claims that Lopez Obrador is the victim of a political witch hunt. And one also can’t help wonder that it’s AMLO’s legal team that are circulating these rumors. By implying that the attorney general’s office will have him transferred to Matamoros and speculating on the reasons for such a transfer, AMLO’s defense may help deter the PGR from pursuing that strategy.
Critique of Washington Post AMLO coverage….
This is a perfect example of why I don’t read the Mexican news coverage in the NYTimes or Washington Post. As Eric Umansky points out, the Post reporter is close to clueless. Others second the sentiment.
The U.S. press, for example, hasn’t figured out that another political battle may soon unfold: who will replace AMLO? Nor do they seem to have a grip on the possible scenarios following the desafuero.
Desafuero vote…
After 7pm tonight, in a session that lasted all day (I don’t think most of those legislators usually work this hard), the Chamber of Deputies voted to remove AMLO’s immunity from prosecution.
In favor: 360
Against: 127
Abstentions: 2 (one of which was a PANista who left the party earlier this year)
Total: 489 present (of 500 total)
If you’re interested in the full text of AMLO’s speech in his defense, you can read it online.
After his presentation, he retired to his home in the southern part of the city to be with his family.
Four scenarios after the desafuero:
1. The attorney general’s office can choose not to prosecute. (Unlikely, given that they claimed to have him under surveillance to make sure he didn’t flee the country last week.)
2. The case against him can proceed, but AMLO can request that his political rights (including the right to run for president) be protected during the trial. He will make such a request. (There is a precendent for this. A member of a debtor’s movement had been charged with invading the Congress, and later had his rights reinstated. He is now in Congress.)
3. If he is not granted his political rights during the trial, he could become a candidate again when and if he is declared innocent in the trial. However, for this to work, the PRD would have to either change its rules and maybe even move around the dates of its nominating convention to suit AMLO. (This may be possible if the party really wants him as a candidate and thinks that he will be found innocent. In the last few days, they have announced that they are moving up their nominating convention in order to nominate AMLO sooner.)
4. The court could find that since there is no injured party, there is no crime. (That’s civil law for you…) But this outcome is considered unlikely.
AMLO has not been arrested, and apparently won’t be until the attorney general’s office files the complaint (probably within 48 hours).
Complete text of AMLO’s speech…
Highlight. He asks his supporters NOT to block streets and disrupt daily life. He inicates the 5 people he would like his supporters to follow. Read below:
Pero quiero ser aún más preciso: nada de bloqueos de calles o carreteras; nada de tomar instalaciones públicas o privadas. Nada que signifique actuar como lo tienen estudiado y previsto nuestros adversarios.
También con claridad, expreso que quienes lleven a cabo acciones de este tipo, aunque se pongan una camiseta nuestra, no están con nuestro movimiento, están con nuestros adversarios o tienen otras motivaciones políticas, que respetamos pero no compartimos.
Por eso, necesitamos una dirección bien identificada por todos y que sea la única que marque el rumbo, el ritmo y la profundidad en la defensa de la voluntad popular y de la libertad de elección.
En concreto, quiero proponerles que si no estoy presente, por las razones que explicaré más adelante, confiemos esa dirección nacional en cinco personas. Propongo una coordinación nacional integrada por dos militantes del PRD y tres ciudadanos independientes. Para ello, pido respetuosamente a los dirigentes de mi partido, que propongan a un representante del Comité Ejecutivo Nacional y a un representante del Comité del Distrito Federal.
También les informo que han aceptado participar como ciudadanos independientes, en esta coordinación, José Agustín Ortiz Pinchetti, Bertha “Chaneca” Maldonado y Elenita Poniatowska. ¿Están de acuerdo?
What he asks of his supporters in his absence:
Meditar, reflexionar y hablar en corto con familiares y amigos, sobre lo que está sucediendo y lo que debemos hacer para fortalecer el movimiento.
Portar el distintivo tricolor y colocar carteles en autos y casas.
Llevar a cabo una Marcha del Silencio del Museo de Antropología al Zócalo, el domingo 24 de abril.
Hacer reuniones informativas todos los domingos en las plazas públicas del país.
Argumentar en medios de comunicación, hacer uso del derecho de réplica y hablar o escribir a la radio, la televisión y los periódicos. Utilizar también, sistemas alternativos de información, como volantes o internet.
< Intensificar la creación en todo el país, de comités ciudadanos a favor del Proyecto Alternativo de Nación. Les informo que al día de hoy, existen 4 mil 128 comités ciudadanos en los 31 estados y en el Distrito Federal. Hay también comités ciudadanos en el extranjero, en particular, en Estados Unidos, en Canadá, en Francia y en Inglaterra. Llamar a votar, y esta es una forma de hacer resistencia civil activa, llamar a votar, ayudar a promover el voto por nuestros candidatos, por la candidata Yeidckol Polevsky, del Estado de México y por el candidato Miguel Ángel Navarro Quintero, de Nayarit. El 3 de julio son esas dos elecciones y vamos a ganar las dos gubernaturas. Informar a organizaciones sociales, políticas y de defensa de derechos humanos de carácter internacional, sobre el intento de retroceso de la democracia mexicana.
He’s asking people to hang signs in their homes and on their cars. A march of silence on April 24 in the DF. Meetings every Sunday throughout the country in central plazas to discuss the progress in the case. To discuss the case with friends and family and in the news media. To participate in citizen committees and to vote.
AMLO will not ask for bail, nor will he allow anyone else to pay it for him. In this way, he only makes himself appear even more like a political martyr.
Overall, I fear the desafuero will happen and will create a great backlash against the PAN and the PRI.
Another photo of demonstration against the desafuero of AMLO in Mexico City
From El Universal online. No subscription needed.
Desafuero underway…
The desafuero debate is currently underway in the Chamber of Deputies. The Mexican stock market continues to suffer.
You can listen to the presentations online at Congress Channel.