Year: 2005

The next Bond has been announced (via). Most of us probably didn’t see this coming.

It’s bad form to start a conversation and then leave mid-way through, but I had unexpected pressing demands on my time. And, I do have a tenure clock to worry about. Please accept my apologies.

Luckily, Matthew Shugart’s conclusion to our exchange about legislative independence and competence in Mexico provided a nice summary. As he points out:

I don’t think Michelle and I actually disagree about much substantively….

….Basically, I am pleading for a research strategy that takes seriously the question of how congress, the parties, and individual members cope with the greater technical capacity currently held by executive ministries, rather than one that assumes Congress lacks independence because the ministries have more technical data than Congress as an institution has….

…I thank Michelle for raising this question. Research into policy-making that takes seriously the variance across policy areas and information flows, as well as the institutional incentives for parties, legislators, and legislatures to insert themselves into the process, is very much the cutting edge of the analysis of policy-making. And not only in Mexico.

I agree that more research should be done in this area, though Matthew and I may still differ on some of the finer methodological points. I only fear that by the time I finish my current projects and get back around to this issue, it probably won’t be cutting edge any more.

On the other hand, this is a prime example of how blogging can push academics into new research areas. One of my random observations [“Geez, how can the opposition parties in Congress really hope to formulate an alternative pension reform proposal with only one actuary on staff? Not to mention that the secretaries in the main Committee office keep the TV blaring Mexican classic movies all day….”] combined with reading and blogging about a news story about energy reform may yet lead to more a new research area.

[I, unfortunately, have the problem of too many potential research ideas and not enough time or resources to pursue them all. Some of my ideas may well not be worth pursuing, too. But, who are these academics that run out of ideas??? I’ve heard they exist, but I can’t say that I understand.]

A week ago, Fox removed Santiago Levy from the head of IMSS, citing the stalemate with the IMSS union over contract negotiations.

That day, anti-Semitic vandalism targeted at Levy appeared on the side of the IMSS administration building on the main thoroughfare through downtown. The union claimed it had nothing to do with the vandalism, and I’d tend to believe that the union leadership had nothing to do with the attacks. First, by forcing his resignation, the union had already ‘won’ the battle. There would be no need to deface the IMSS building. Second, for all their differences, I often had union leaders tell me in private interviews how much respect they had for Levy as a person. They regarded him as a highly competent professional compared to many previous IMSS directors. That doesn’t mean that members of the rank-and-file weren’t responsible. Racism of many forms run rampant throughout Mexico. (And, don’t try to tell me it’s just classism, and I’m being too “American” when I call it racism….I’ve lived in Mexico long enough to know racism when I see it.)

Anyway, the negotiations with the new Director General of IMSS appear to be moving along, and the union is considering postponing its October 15 strike deadline.

I’m back to the blog, though with some reservations, given Dan Dresner’s recent tenure decision. (Chris has a good round-up of the reactions.)

I’ve kept busy the last week by finishing that book review essay (five books) and completing revisions to a journal submission. I’ve also spent several hours meeting with graduate students, grading papers, and prepping for class.

That sounds like a beginning to a post about the Social Security conflict in Mexico, but it’s not.

Instead, I finished the one R&R on Monday, but now the Editor is asking that I add a statistical appendix with other results. And he needs them by tomorrow. Luckily, I think it’s do-able, but that means I won’t get to those student papers this afternoon.

And no blogging. I’ll be lucky if I get to watch Joey.

The good news is that my article will appear in the next issue if I get this done.

A promise is a promise

I said no more substantive posts until I finish that essay, and then look what happens: Fox removes the head of the Social Security Institute and all hell threatens to break loose. See links below. More comments later.

Denuncia el SNTSS ahorro del IMSS en plazas vacantes
Miente el IMSS; ningún avance en las negociaciones: sindicato
Cerca, la huelga en el IMSS: Vega Galina
Conflicto anunciado en el IMSS
Fox: pese a zonceras de chismosos, el ISSSTE jamás será privatizado
Mi salida no atrasará la revisión del CCT: Levy
Se agotó un modelo de negociación sobre pensiones: Carlos Abascal
Ofrece el nuevo director del IMSS abrir espacios de diálogo con el sindicato
La renuncia de Levy genera desconcierto en el Congreso
Reanudar pláticas con el SNTSS, pide Fox a Flores
Vega Galina se dice listo para reanudar pláticas
Diputados solicitarán a la ASF investigue la gestión de Levy
El Universal Online – México.El Universal Online – México.El Universal Online – México.
El Universal Online – México.

Ok. I couldn’t resist.

Calderon is one step closer to clinching the PAN nomination. Vote results. And related news articles.

One down, two to go

Just sent off one set of revisions for a journal article. That leaves just one more revise and resubmit to finish (this week?).

Then there are the pesky two concluding paragraphs that I need to write for that book review essay. Then, I swear, no more book reviews for me. (I’ve done one for each of the top journals in my field…that’s pleeenty.)

No substantive posting until I finish that essay.

Exporting cronyism to the U.S.

Mary Elena has not been ‘selected’ to represent Mexicans in Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky by the SRE board. Though I don’t know the “other guy,” Mary Elena’s blog reflects her concern for Mexicans living in the U.S. and social justice.

Now that the selection process is over, I hope she brings back her old blog template.

Andale, pues

Tonight, the NFL is having its first ever NFL game in Mexico. The NFL appears to be trying to expand its market down South.

Outside the Stadium. Usually these [bootleg] souvenirs are for Mexican futbol teams, like Cruz Azul.

I could say more, but I have too much work to do.

Closer yet…

jackknife, cl(country) noi: regress y x1 x2 x3, robust

Now, I need to figure out how to save each result so that I can calculated predicted values. I think it’s the save option. Whoopee!

[Update: jackknife _b _se, saving (testresults, replace) cl(cntyid) noi: regress y x1 x2 x3, robust]

[I’m a big time dork.]

Duh

Funny how the brain works. My first thought upon waking this morning:

“keep if e(sample)”

Second thought: “Duh, that is so obvious.”

These thoughts were after waking from a dream in which my department was having a new position search, and I was applying for the position (??). Part of the dream was a conversation with one of my current colleagues asking him whether I should present some research on Mexico or something cross-national and quantitative. The good news was that I was on the short list for this position, and I think I applied for it because it paid more than my current position. The dream wasn’t really a nervous or stressful dream. Could this be related to my third year review? Probably. (Except the raise part….unfortunately.)

Back to work.

Grrrr….

I hate Stata. More precisely, I hate Stata help files. [In the voice of Friends’ Chandler: Could they make help files less helpful?]

I have unbalanced panels of time series, cross section data. I have three different dependent variables, and two models (full and restricted) for each. I want to test for unit outliers. The recommended approach is leaving out a (country) unit, estimating the model, then using the model to predict the values for the omitted unit. I have to do this for all 39 (countries) units in my sample. Then, I can determine which countries are likely to be outliers. [And regular outlier commands don’t work because I have country-years and use robust estimation.]

There is probably some simple code to have it run the regressions and do the predictions by unit without generating 200 pages of output, but I can’t seem to figure out how. I can only figure out how to do each country separately which will take FOREVER. [I can’t even figure out how to get Stata to save my e(sample) from each regression. The dataset has 1200 observations total, but due to missing data, each regression uses about 450 observations.]

Despite the fact that I just took a lunch break with Brian to have a burrito, I am in no better mood now. Grrrr.

[Update: Getting warmer, I think…]

[Update: Close, but no cigar….]

In my inbox

In the last 24 hours, number of reminders that the deadline for proposals for the MPSA meetings in Chicago is October 10: 4

Update: #5#s 5 & 6 arrived in my inbox today. (10/4/2005)
Update: #7 arrived today, via POLMETH. (10/5/2005)

International news of the wierd (and gruesome)

Religious statues in Bogota bound for Miami found to have 4-5 month old fetuses inside. Eeew.

At 31, I am now OLD

Last night, Coldplay had a show in Atlanta, and several of my graduate students skipped stats class to go. (They turned in their homeworks and research paper questions first, though.)

I admit: I did not know who Coldplay is or what songs they sing. I googled them, and that was no help. The picture and album names on their website meant nothing to me. The students who were in class told me that Coldplay provides the WB most of its soundtrack. Still, no help; I hate even the ads for the O.C. [oops, that’s on Fox] most shows on WB except Reba.

Brian, who I normally credit with keeping me up to date with pop culture, said he knows about Coldplay but never thought they were worth mentioning. [That is telling in itself.] Today, he sent me this. I guess it’s ok that I missed Coldplay if they are already “played out.”

But, I still feel old. I remember that when I was in high school, my dad did not “get” In Living Color, and I swore I never wanted to be so old, middle-class, and white that I didn’t get it.

I guess that’s what a PhD and working too hard will do that to you. Makes you old and out of touch before your time.

Misc Mexican news roundup

Today, there are several items that relate to news topics I’ve mentioned before.

They’ve found another murdered woman in Ciudad Juarez. That brings this year’s total to 30. Read my earlier posts.
[Updated: There’s a NYTimes article and multimedia slideshow about the femicidios this week.]

The Supreme Court will hear a case brought by the Executive regarding sugar cane industry legislation. This relates to an earlier observation (and follow-up) that I made regarding the increasing importance of the Mexican judiciary for resolving political disputes.

Subnational units of the social security union are mobilizing against the proposed reform to their labor contract and the 2004 legislation. The previous posts about the conflict are too many to list. Also notable is the subnational alliances mentioned in the article which reflect changes in the union movement post-2000. For the complete story on that, you’ll have to wait until I write that article.

And finally, representatives from the PRI and PRD are putting together an initiative to legalize abortion. [This is actually a new topic, though I posted some links to the heated debate about the day-after pill this summer.]

We’re hiring

In political economy. Economists welcome. No blog necessary.

Another case of discrimination

Against a person living with HIV in Mexico.

The one to beat in 2012

Enrique Pena Nieto is now governor of the state of Mexico, but watch for him in 2012 for President. He’s got the charm of Clinton and the backing of very powerful people (methinks he doth protest too much).