Over the last week, the Mexican stock and bond market has been fairly volatile. I’ve resisted the temptation to repeat the ups and downs on a daily basis. In any event, Lopez Obrador made a campaign stop up north (i.e., Monterrey) to calm markets and assure the business community that he’s no Hugo Chavez. I’m not sure they’ll believe him, but it’s worth a try.
In any case, when I visited Tec de Monterrey in early June, I was telling some skeptical Regios that though Lopez Obrador is a leftist, he’s not a Hugo Chavez. I suggested that he understood the importance of business support and foreign capital, and I cited his behavior during the desafuero last year as evidence. I’m not sure I convinced them either.
Now that the election is fast approaching, I thought it’d be worth posting links to some of my earlier predictions and analyses.
My November post predicted a 2-way race between AMLO and Calderon. [Don’t be too impressed–that was a fairly obvious one….]
From last April (April 2005), I commented on the Finance Minister’s recognition of AMLO’s restraint and discussed the issue of markets and the attempt to prevent AMLO from running for President.
I still say AMLO’s more likely to turn out to be a Lula than a Chavez, if elected.
I really hope so.
If we have to predict who he’ll compare to, I’m going to guess Garcia. A populist who will have his disagreements with both the US and Chavez.
But which Garcia, the old or the new (and supposedly refomed)?