Year: 2006

Because it means I have something that will be published soon!

At least once a year, some undergraduate or M.S. student comes to me asking where they should apply to study for a Ph.D. And every time, I respond by asking: “Why do you want a Ph.D.?”

For those that tell me they want to become a university or college teacher/professor, I then ask, “What kind of college or university? What kind of professor?” After that, I explain how the academic job market works, and we discuss what types of programs they would want in order to maximize the likelihood that they will be able to get the type of job they want. Then, we discuss their particular research interests, and I recommend programs that they should investigate further. Roughly 20-25% of the students in my office fall into this category.

The rest usually give me one of the following responses to the first question (Why a PhD?):

“I like politics.”

“I like school and am good at it.”

“I am or want to be an intellectual.”

“I am smart and [therefore] should get a Ph.D.”

“I just want one.” Or,

“I like reading interesting books and contemplating important issues.”

[These reasons are not unlike those offered by future English Ph.D. students, though the job outlook for them is even more bleak. (Via.)]

For these students, I pass along something one of my undergraduate advisors told me when he learned I had been accepted to graduate school: a Ph.D. is not an end in itself, it is a means to an end, much like a union card necessary to get a particular job.

I point out that intellectual curiosity is not likely to sustain anyone through those dark nights sitting in front of a blank computer screen, and if at some point, you realize you can get the job you want without a Ph.D., you’re likely to give up the Ph.D. because it’s just so much work.

Then, I go on to explain how the job market works, how you have little to no choice over where you live for your first job(s), how important it is to go to a “top” program, and how hard you have to work to get tenure (no matter where you land in your first job–it’s hard to get tenure everywhere, the expectations are just distributed differently). In essence, I do everything possible to disabuse them of the notion that being a faculty member is glamorous.

So that’s the first half of the “So you [think you] want to get a Ph.D.?” talk.

At some point, I’ll post the second half of the talk (about the job market, assistantships and why if you aren’t offered one anywhere, you probably shouldn’t be trying to get a Ph.D., and other of my personal opinions). It’s a bit of tough love, but I hope it helps some of my students. If it scares them from getting a Ph.D., they probably didn’t really want one anyway, and if they go on to a Ph.D. program, at least they are doing so with their eyes wide open.

And then, when I get random queries about grad school, I can just point them to my posts first. It will save us both time.

Wrote 4-6 pages (?) and finished all but the conclusion of Chapter 3. I’m going to sleep on it, re-read the Chapter tomorrow, and write the conclusion when I’m fresh (or at least caffeinated).

I should really get my head out of the sand. How did I not know about this?

Back to the grindstone.

[Jeez, could I use more cliches?]

Progress is now harder to measure because it is more about revising than writing new pages. That said, I probably wrote about 4-5 pages total today (introductions, transitions) and completed revisions to bring Chapter 3 within 8-10% of completion.

Tomorrow: Write about 2-3 pages to wrap up two unfinished sections each, and another 4 pages of Chapter conclusions. Shouldn’t be too hard, once I go back and re-read the revised Chapter.

At the Colombia Statistical Modeling blog, Gelman has posted a short summary and link to a statistical analysis of the 2000 election votes in Mexico. The paper has some interesting empirical findings but is a little short on theoretical or contextual analysis. [You know, the “why” question….] There’s no clear theoretical or even Mexico-specific explanation for the observed pattern. This seems like a prime case of having the data and methods to run some cool models without doing the necessary research on Mexican politics to make good sense of the results. I’m sure journal reviewers (and Mexican specialists) who are impressed by the methods will help brainstorm explanations to explain the results…essentially doing the authors’ work for them.

Given the availability of Mexican poll data, there’s almost a cottage industry in testing hypotheses from American election studies on the Mexican data. Though there are exceptions, many studies are misspecified because in their rush to apply the their pet method to the new data, they forget to bother learning about Mexican politics. I’m not trying to make a case for Mexican exceptionalism; there probably are voting models that are nearly universal. But on the other hand, researchers need to understand that certain indicators that reliably measure something in the U.S. may not measure the same concept elsewhere. Just because decades of election studies have established the validity and reliability in the U.S. context doesn’t mean that those same measures are sure to be valid and reliable elsewhere. We need much more work testing basic measurement in the Mexican context, IMHO.

I don’t want to accuse Gelman of not doing his homework, but if he has, it’s not evident in the draft of that paper.

Today is the second of three planned assemblies in the Zocalo called by Lopez Obrador. Again, he is calling for a full recount to restore public confidence in the electoral results.

See more images.

Elsewhere, some are criticizing both sides for the negative campaigning and the consequent polarization.

Inside Higher Ed reports on a plans at Rice to start an online UP. The lead paragraph explains:

It’s hard to attend scholarly meetings these days without someone talking about the “crisis of scholarly publishing,” which goes something like this: Libraries can’t afford to buy new scholarly books; in turn, university presses can’t afford to publish books no one can buy and so cut back on their sales of monographs; in turn, junior professors can’t get their first books published and have a tough time getting tenure.

In a discipline as conservative (read: risk averse and incredibly status conscious) as political science, I can’t imagine tenure committees buying into online publications for junior faculty members’ tenure cases. And even Munger admits that books are harder to publish now.

Can put you in a bad mood. Sometimes it’s not good to know how little you’re paid.

Though already in first place, Wal-Mart is trying to gain even more market share in Mexico.

Have I mentioned that Wal-Mart is the single largest private employer in Mexico?

I thought this had already happened. Elba Esther has five days to appeal.

Fast forward through the EDOMEX vote tabulations to the comparison of various campaign slogans/commercials of Calderon and those paid for by third parties (meaning…non-political parties).

I don’t claim to know Mexican electoral law, so I couldn’t say whether the third party videos cross the line.

But it is interesting to observe the similarities between Calderon’s message and those of some of the third parties. Studies have been done of the rhetoric and style of campaign videos in the U.S., and I am not familiar with similar studies on Mexico. These videos suggest a good place to start. (If the video disappears from AMLO’s site, I’ll post it to youtube later.)

Lopez Obrador has posted two more videos to his website, alleging that both illustrate instances of fraud. This time, the videos come from Tabasco & Puebla and Guanajuato (again) & Tlaxcala.

I have not watched them, so I offer no comment on their content.

Updated to add: Plus video of Mexico state and commercials.

I’m not sure how many pages I wrote/revised today (my guess would be between 6 and 12), but I have finished mostly complete versions of 2 chapters (one is about 8K words, the other about 16K). I’ve sent them to three trustworthy and kind colleagues who have offered to read them.

Now, I turn to revising several empirical chapters, which should go more quickly than the writing of these last two has gone.

As regular commenter, Jose, points out, the local precinct official in the video corroborates the IFE explanation that he was moving incorrectly cast ballots from one box to another, which is permitted by law. That seems reasonable. As Jose points out, the PAN has already questioned the credibility of other AMLO claims…suggesting if he’ll stretch the truth with the video, why not others?

Given the heated passions and a tendency to not necessarily listen to reason in such circumstances, it’s entirely possible that this point will be lost on many supporters of AMLO, who will continue to insist that it is suggestive of fraud.
Others will just shake their heads in disbelief that AMLO’s camp will try to use any shred of impropriety to justify their claims of fraud. If AMLO’s camp understood what the video depicted but chose to present it as otherwise, Lopez Obrador will lose a lot of credibility at home and abroad. (Ok…maybe only with those paying attention….)

As I said in the original post, it’s not really easy to interpret what is happening in the videos, which makes them open to several interpretations. It’s certainly not as obvious as the videos of Bejarano stuffing wads of money in his pants.

I guess I should add some translation to my comments regarding the phone conversations in the earlier post, too. A benign interpretation of the conversation between la maestra and the PRI governor of Tamaulipas would be that she was calling him to tell him that if he’s willing to work with the PAN, he should let them know because they were assuming such PRI governors would stick with the PRI no matter what.

Presumably, the PRI realized early on July 2 that Calderon would win and was mobilizing to generate good will with the frontrunner in order to solidify their relationship for the future. Why Elba Esther was the person chosen to make such calls is another question (considering she’s was expelled by the PRI to my recollection). [And the answer probably has to do with personal ties she may have to that governor or other folks in that particular state. Perhaps other PRIistas were calling other PRI governors in other states.]

Also, my phrase “get out the vote,” I realize in retrospect, doesn’t probably translate into the Mexican context well. In the U.S., parties regularly ‘get out the vote,’ by calling voters to remind them to vote, providing rides to polling places, and generally helping publicize when/where to vote. In the U.S., this is not considered undemocratic. But in the Mexican context, such activities sound too much like the old PRI machine at work to be viewed in the same light. In Mexico, ‘getting out the vote’ would imply coercion or at least buying of votes with food, drink, or other promises.

Are the recorded conversations smoking guns indicating widespread voter fraud at top levels in Tamaulipas? Probably not. I’m not sure the governor would even be the right person to call in the state if you wanted to buy an election.

Are the calls indiscreet? Yes, definitely.

Do they reveal the types of unsavory relationships common in politics? Yes.

Does Mexico have a monopoly on unsavoriness in politics? No.

Yesterday, AMLO presented his evidence of inconformities in the election to the election officials and to the press.

The 30 minute video is also posted on his website, along with two audio conversations (with transcripts). The video shows some ballots set aside at a polling place, then later someone putting ballots in the box (which only the voter is supposed to do). The IFE responded that the official was moving ballots to the correct box. [There are separate ballots, color coded, for each election, and voters are supposed to put the ballots in separate boxes. The IFE explained that someone is putting Diputado ballots in the Diputado box box after they were mistakenly put in the President box by the voters.]

Then, it cuts to ballot counting in another state, though it’s not as clear what we’re supposed to notice is wrong with that picture. AMLO says the officials are changing the vote tallies in favor of the PAN.

The first audio is a conversation between Elba Esther, the head of the teachers’ union and former 2nd in command in the PRI who had recently become more cozy with the PAN and Fox, talking with the PRI governor of Tamaulipas (the coastal state bordering Texas). The transcript has Elba Esther discussing some of her organization’s polls and asking the governor which way he’s leaning. She says it’s clear that the PRI is out and would like to know if he’s leaning toward the PAN, as she thinks he might. She indicates that someone from the PAN may be calling him, if they haven’t already, and she suggests that he call “Felipe” (presumably, Calderon’s people) to let him know where he stands so it doesn’t look bad. To me, it sounds more like they are conspiring to ‘get out the vote’ in support of the PAN, but maybe I’m just naive. (With la maestra, I guess anything is possible.)

From the transcript:

EEG. NUESTRA ENCUESTA TIENE, POR UNA RED QUE ARMAMOS EN TODO EL PAIS, (ANDELE) DE 6,364 CUESTIONARIOS APENAS LLEVAMOS, DE 14,000 LLEVAMOS 6,000, PERDON. Y VAN ASI: 34.1 PAN, 22.96 PRI. 33.68, PRD. YA SE CAYO EL PRI, EH, (MUY BIEN) ENTONCES HAY QUE SABER COMO ACTUAR

GOB. AS1 ES MAESTRA.

EEG HAY QUE SABER COMO ACTUAR Y AQUI SI VIENE LA DEClSlON DE FONDO. PORQUE LA INFORMACION QUE HAY ACA EN LOS ESTADOS DE NUESTROS AMIGOS, (AJA), TAMAULIPAS Y COAHUILA ESTAN CON TODO POR EL PRI Y VAN A HABLAR, NO SE SI YA HABLARON, VALE MAS QUE USTEDES SE ADELANTEN, SI AS1 LO DECIDEN, CON , FELIPE, PARA VENDER LO QUE TENGAN, EL PRI YA SE CAYO, EH.

GOB. NO, ESO NOS QUEDA MUY CLARO.

EEG. NO SE POR DONDE ANDES, POR AZUL O POR AMARILLO, PERO SI VA POR AZUL QUE ES LO QUE PENSAMOS, VALE MAS HABLARLE A FELiPE Y DEClRLE KiGO, NO, PARA NO QUEDAR MAL.

GOB. SI, YO CREO QUE TODO VA BIEN

EEG. VAMOS A SACAR AHORITA TODO ELVOTO CIUDADANO.

GOB. AQUl ESTAMOS HACIENDO LA CHAMBA. EH. POR AH/ … ESTE..

EEG. POR ESO QUISE HABLAR. PORQUE EL INFORME QUE TIENEN ES QUE TODO PARA EL PRI. Y LO ES VERDAD, PORQUE ESO ES INSTITUCIONAL. ANTE LA CAIDA, CREO QUE LO INTERESANTE ES HABLAR CON FELIPE Y VENDERSELO.

GOB. AS1 ES.

EEG. NO?,

GOB. ENTONCES HABLAR CON MI VECINO, TAMBIEN, PARA VER COMO ANDA

EEG. COMO ANDAN, PERO YA, YA SE VA DESPEJANDO. YA EL VOTO DURO YA SALIO. BUENO, YO TE COMUNICO Y HAY ESPERO TU DECISION.

GOB. OKEY, LE AGRADEZCO MUCHO MAESTRA.

EEG. SI TE DECIDES POR AZUL, NO LO VAYAS A ………( CLARO) UN ABRAZOTE.

GOB. IGUALMENTE, GUSTO EN SALUDARLA, MAESTRA., ESTAMOS EN CONTACTO.

EEG. IGüHiMENTE.

[Updated to add: Now that I’ve listened to the audio, I must admit it sounds worse than it reads.]

The second audio is a phone conversation between a member of the Fox cabinet and the governor of Tamaulipas. This is presumably the call that Elba Esther hinted at above. From the transcript, it’s not clear what they are talking about. From the transcript:

SCT. EUGENIO

GOB. SECRETARIO BUENAS TARDES, ¿COMO ESTAS? PEDRO

SCT PUES MUY AGRADECIDO, CREO QUE TE SOBREGIRASTE.

GOB. NO HOMBRE, JA, JA, JA,

SCT CON MUCHO GUSTO Y CON MUCHO APRECIO.

GOB. NO, ME DA MUCHO GUSTO, LO HAGO CON MUCHO AFECTO Y ADEMAS NOS HAS AYUDADO BASTANTE.

SCT. NO, CUENTA CON TODO …. QUE VAS A VER A ….. MANUEL ESPINO

SCT MANUEL ESPINO

GOB. NO SE …. HABLE CON EL HOY EN LA MAÑANA, ECHAMOS UNA PLATICADA.

SCT. ME DlJO QUE LO MEJOR ES QUE TE DIGA QUE SI PODlA ECHARTE UN GRITO Y PEDIRTE QUE LE ECHARAS LA MANO.

GOB. ANDALE. SI. QUE NECESITA.

SCT COSA QUE HAGO CON MUCHO GUSTO. PUES NO SE QUE TE VAYA A PEDIR.

GOB. HA BUENO. FIJATE VOY LLEGANDO AQUí A TOLUCA. VOY A UNA REUNION CON GOBERNADORES DE NUESTRO PARTIDO. Y ANALIZAR QUE VAMOS A HACER … YO CREO QUE HAY QUE IRNOS CON LA …. CON EL IFE Y AGUANTAR VARA.

SCT NO CREO QUE VAYA EN ESE SENTIDO. PERO DE TODAS MANERAS YO TE LO QUERIA PLANTEAR. ME DlJO OYE, TU TIENES CONTACTO CON ALGUNOS QUE SEAN AMIGOS TUYOS, LE DIJE, PUES DOS O TRES QUE SON AMIGOS, LOS DEMAS SOLO SON CONOCIDOS.

GOB. AS1 ES.

SCT PUES SI LES PUEDES ECHAR UN GRITO Y DECIRLES QUE NOS ECHEN UNA MANO, PUES CON TODO GUSTO LO HAGO, SOBRE TODO PORQUE HAY QUE MANTENER LA …

GOB. CLARO, NO, ESTAMOS NOSOTROS CON ESO, … AS1 ES, ESA ES NUESTRA CONVlCClON Y AS1 LO HA DETERMINADO UN GRUPO DE AMIGOS, COLEGAS, HACE UNAS SEMANAS, CUANDO VIMOS QUE ESTO PODlA CERRARSE, PODlA OCURRIR.

SCT YO NO LE VEO NINGUN PROBLEMA, CONOCIENDO A LOS QUE CONOZCO, Y QUE CON TODO GUSTO HARlA YO EL TRAMITE.

GOB. NO TE AGRADEZCO MUCHO QUE ME HAYAS HABLADO PEDRO, CUENTA CON NOSOTROS EN ESE SENTIDO. SOMOS VARIOS COLEGAS QUE ESTAMOS EN ESE TENOR. Y DE HECHO

SCT. UN SALUDO

GOB. IGUALMENTE PEDRO GRACIAS GUSTO EN SALUDARTE.

The officials have until early September to review the complaints and make a decision.

After a record-setting 12 pages finished after 3 a.m., today I have finished 3 so far.

The night is young.

Update: Another ~2 before bedtime.

(Updates 2:48 a.m.) More revisions, 2 pages of notes, and   9    12 new pages.

Boy, do I really need my 9am chiropractor visit after sitting at my desk all afternoon/night.

7 pages and some outlining/reorganization of my argument.

Here’s the front page of the leftist press.

And here’s a picture of the meeting in the Zocalo.

Both from La Jornada