Professor of Political Science & Sen. Wm. McMaster Chair in Gender & Methodology, McMaster University
Despite low page count (about 2), I read back over what I’ve got so far and made some notes, and I’m happier with what I’ve got than I thought I would be. So, I guess that’s good.
Oh. And I did a decent chunk of work on that service project that is paying my summer salary, and cleaned my desk off.
By taking a picture of my desk, titled “Clutter,” and posting it to Flickr.
Ugalde, who heads the government body that certifies elections in Mexico (IFE), has said that he will announce the results of the ‘quick count’ at 11pm the night of the election. Of course, his announcment may be that the race is too close to call, but he has committed to give a progress report of the count and vote shares, nonetheless. The IFE has also gone through several simulated vote counts over the last month to ensure that there can be no electronic irregularities during the count. [Of course, this is an oblique reference to the computer malfunction in 1988, which lasted a week and, some argue, was used as a cover for the PRI and Salinas to steal the election from Cardenas.]
At the same time, the Secretary of State is working with the parties to ensure that no one claims victory prematurely on election night.
La Jornada is stirring up debate over (television?) ads of the CCE (Employers’ Coordination Board) that urge voters to vote for economic stability.
Two of the ads are posted on the CCE website. The first ad [watch online] shows a young boy with a $20 peso bill (roughly $2 US). The announcer asks him how he would feel if those 20 pesos were only worth 10. The boy looks frightened and asks, incredulously, if that could really happen? Then, the announcer (off screen) says (not to the boy, but to the viewer), that indeed it is possible and that Mexico must protect the economic stability it has created.
The second ad [watch online] shows a number of small shopkeepers opening for the day. The voiceover remarks that in the last 10 years, Mexico has attained the economic institutions necessary for growth, and that when the economy grows, everyone benefits. It then says Mexicans should defend what they have accomplished.
I think there are at least two interesting points raised by the La Jornada coverage. First, the newspaper quotes some people that defend the CCE ad campaign by arguing that the social security union’s website clearly supports Lopez Obrador. Here’s my initial reaction to that comparison:
1. Anyone’s whose visited the SNTSS website will see that it’s so overrun with flash as to be barely tolerable;
2. I’m not convinced many voters who were considering voting for Calderon would visit the SNTSS site;
3. And how many people have internet access anyway (or at least that they’re not using to instant message or fiddle with their myspace?);
4. Is a photo of AMLO and some ugly PRD flash really the same as a very slick ad campaign?; and
5. I’m not really sure that a photo of AMLO with Vega is really going to help AMLO, it might actually hurt him (Vega is Secretary General of the union and is finishing a term as a PRI Deputy. More importantly, Vega’s not very popular with the rank-and-file, many of whom were unhappy with his handling of the last 2 contract negotiations).
Second, another article discusses dissent within the CCE over the ads. This is instructive because it highlights some important (and historical) divisions among the business elite. You can read books by Shadlen or Schneider for the details, but my short version is this:
The CCE was created in the 70s to serve as an umbrella for several existing industrial/commercial organizations regulated by the state. It has been dominated by the stronger industrial interests of the north (that is, Northern Mexico, not necessarily the U.S.). One of the (smaller) members of the CCE is the Canacintra, which represents small and medium industrial firms. Members of the Canacintra benefited from Mexico’s old state-led development model and have suffered from neoliberal reforms. I once read somewhere that they are the Marxists of Mexican business, but I think that’s a little strong. They just benefited from the rents provided by the state for so many decades and were understandably disappointed to see them go.
Apparently, the Canacintra is also unhappy with the CCE ad campaign because presumably they’d rather not see Calderon elected.
Just took care of my APSA travel arrangements and plans for the rest of the holiday weekend in NYC! Yay! I haven’t been there since I left in ’94. When I was there as a student I was working (work study in the women’s studies department, one of two high school secretaries for the JTS high school, and The Gap at 96th and Broadway) 20+ hours a week, so I didn’t see much apart from work, the library, and the WBAR studio.
Due to mucked-up air travel to the Midwest in April, I had a free vouche–so Brian can come, too. And then, I think I have enough Hilton points and airline miles to get 2 free nights at a midtown Hilton. Of course, it took about two hours on the phone and web to figure out how to make it work.
NYC agenda: museums & a Yankees game
Book progress today: 2 pages, but the night is young.
From Milenio.
Could they have found a more unflattering image of Madrazo?
With this nice overview of trends.
5 new pages. (That’s a total of 18 since last Thursday)
Theoretical breakthrough tonight. Some bibliography grunt-work.
Still need to pick up the pace.
Glad that Mexico has made it to round two of the WC? Of course.
But I was really referring to this bit from an article by a Financial Post reporter:
Even if Obrador wins the day, he is no Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan who’s flirted with Cuba’s Castro, threatened to kick out foreign resource companies and to divert oil exports away from the U.S.
Mr. Obrador has talked about renegotiating the North American free trade deal. But so did Canadian Liberal candidate Jean Chretien back in the 1993 election and yet he did absolutely nothing to make good on that “promise”.
Such gringo-bashing is favoured by self-styled populists in Mexico and Canada alike, but fail to resonate with a majority of the populace in either neighbouring country. This is not only because it’s dismissed as rhetoric, but it’s also increasingly appreciated that the NAFTA deal makes inordinate good sense for all three countries.
As for Mexico’s resource industry, there’s nothing to nationalize. Mexico’s federal government owns the monopoly oil company, PEMEX.
And no candidate is talking about privatization either.
On the book: 1 typed page + 5 pages of new outline for next section with detailed notes.
On that service project: Productive meeting with colleague where we agreed on objectives and outlined next steps
On fall team-teaching (in same meeting): Agreed on schedule of topics and books to be ordered
Over the last week, the Mexican stock and bond market has been fairly volatile. I’ve resisted the temptation to repeat the ups and downs on a daily basis. In any event, Lopez Obrador made a campaign stop up north (i.e., Monterrey) to calm markets and assure the business community that he’s no Hugo Chavez. I’m not sure they’ll believe him, but it’s worth a try.
In any case, when I visited Tec de Monterrey in early June, I was telling some skeptical Regios that though Lopez Obrador is a leftist, he’s not a Hugo Chavez. I suggested that he understood the importance of business support and foreign capital, and I cited his behavior during the desafuero last year as evidence. I’m not sure I convinced them either.
Now that the election is fast approaching, I thought it’d be worth posting links to some of my earlier predictions and analyses.
My November post predicted a 2-way race between AMLO and Calderon. [Don’t be too impressed–that was a fairly obvious one….]
From last April (April 2005), I commented on the Finance Minister’s recognition of AMLO’s restraint and discussed the issue of markets and the attempt to prevent AMLO from running for President.
I still say AMLO’s more likely to turn out to be a Lula than a Chavez, if elected.
Poll results released by Excelsior puts Lopez Obrador ahead by four percentage points, with a margin of errror….not reported.
The horserace reporting of polls will end 10 days before the election, during which time the publication of polls is not permitted by law.
5 new pages.
Tomorrow I have a teaching/service meeting at 2pm and will have to spend 1-2 hours preparing in the a.m.
This time by a colleague and friend. On the important issue of women’s human rights in the Mid East.
Go, Sylvia.
The most recent Zogby poll has Calderon narrowly in the lead (methodology).
The spin in the press release implies that Calderon is a sure to win, though their results are not entirely consistent with other Mexican polls.
To me, it all suggests that it’s going to be a very tight finish.
Last week, I received a nice email from Jose Luis Reyna, a sociologist at Colmex whom I’ve never met. He wrote to tell me that he’d cited my research in an op-ed piece that he wrote for El Milenio.
The opinion piece discusses claims that the Secretary of Social Development is using social programs for the poor to earn votes for the PAN. He cites a 2000 paper in which I demonstrate that similar programs were used in the early 1990s to get votes for the PRI. His citation and quote:
El Pronasol de Salinas funcionó con criterios políticos más que asistenciales y no estuvo “dirigido a las estados o regiones más necesitados del país”. (M.Dion. “La economía política del gasto social: el programa de Solidaridad de México, 1988.1994”. Estudios Sociológicos Núm. 53, mayo-agosto de 2000).
Nifty, huh?
2.5 new written pages and 2 revised pages.
Plus an eye exam for new glasses and contacts.
Three new typewritten pages.
Of course, it’s the first real progress since before I went to Monterrey. This service stuff can be really disruptive, even during the summer.
I think I’m back in the groove now; just wish it hadn’t taken so long.
Mance has a nice dog bed, in a coveted spot next to my desk at home. However, it seems that the cats have kicked him out of the bed, and he has to sleep on the hard floor.
More like the omega dog.
Dr. Simi
He’s also mentioned in a recent Reuters piece on the Mexican presidential candidates:
Some of the most colorful campaigners cannot legally run because no political party will back them.
They include oddball magnate Victor Gonzalez, who has adopted the persona of his pharmacy chain’s rotund and grandfatherly mascot, “Dr Simi,” with fluffy white hair and mustache.
Claiming more Mexican fans than Mickey Mouse, and fond of models in mini-skirts, Gonzalez hires people to wear spongy Dr Simi costumes and dance outside his pharmacies.
“I have money but I earned it honestly. I have women but I am single. The people love these things,” he said recently.
