Year: 2007

On our way to the Emory library (from which I’m writing this), we saw the Dalai Lama‘s motorcade leaving campus. Brian spotted him in a sleek four door sedan, while I was too busy staring at his security. He was followed by at least two SUVs: one with big security guys in suits facing outward and another in which commando-style guys were sitting in front of each open window (including the rear window) facing outward with some of the biggest automatic weapons I’ve ever seen in real life. Pretty intimidating.

We’ve seen the Pope’s procession before. Though this one was smaller, it clearly had more firepower.

Since graduate school, I have periodically had stress-related dreams in which I’m racing to the airport to catch a plane and have invariably forgotten my suitcase, passport, etc.

Last night, I had a new type of stress-related dream. I was on my way to work, but it was like Disneyland and along a river walk. The bus let me out on this little finger of land (about 2-3 people wide) that extended over the middle of the river. There was a crush of people.

Just as I was turning around to walk away from the edge of the finger and to take the long way around to the edge of the river, a party boat for a loud morning radio show passed under the finger and exploded a bunch of silly string on all of us. The crowd on the finger tightened and surged.

I decided to just jump into the river and swim to the edge, since that would be the shortest route to work.

Once I was in the water, however, I realized that I had my laptop bag and another bag filled with research-related papers on my shoulders. I worried that my data would be lost. I decided to swim more quickly.

As I neared the edge, I noticed someone else swimming and having a time of it. Like Harry Potter in the Goblet of Fire, I had to decide whether to save my data or this person. I decided I was strong enough to save both and with one last burst of energy pushed myself and the other person to the surface.

Once on the sidewalk next to the river, I opened my laptop bag to discover that my laptop was only a little wet and booted up fine (though Windows in my dream was very Disney–imagine puffy fonts and bright colors) and my papers were half soaked, but salvageable and not disintegrated.

So everything was o.k. I gathered my things and continued my way through the crowds to work.

So what’s that about?

Actually, it’s already on the editor’s desk.

Yesterday, I sent off my book manuscript on the development of welfare in Mexico since the 1920s. You can browse chapters online. (Of course, I’m willing to send hard copies to anyone willing to give me feedback!)

Of the most interest to my Mexican readers will probably be the very-up-to-date discussion of the ISSSTE reform in March 2007.

Yesterday, I also re-estimated some equations (with some alternative measures to those we used in the first version–and the new results are even better!!) for a joint paper with one of our grad students and typed up some of the response-to-reviewers for a very simple R&R at JofLAS. I’ll finish the revisions/response today.

And then, it’s on to the next–the R&R at CP, which essentially is only cutting/tightening the literature review. It should be done by Friday, which is good because tomorrow I meet again with my RA to run the data for my new project with Andrew Roberts. He’s going to present a first iteration of the project next month at a small meeting at TAMU. So all weekend is likely to be consumed with “fun with Stata.” Oddly enough, I’m totally looking forward to it. (It sure beats formatting a 30+ page bibliography!)

I’m also sitting on some revised figures to insert into the paper Vicki Birchfield and I presented in early September in Florence. Once she sends me the revised text, I can do some touch-ups to the discussion of the methods, insert the new figures, and it’s off to a journal. Another fun project for this weekend.

I have spent probably 20+ hours over the last three days correcting, checking, finding AOL, and formatting bibliographic and interview entries for my 300+ page book manuscript. Talk about tedious.

I’ve read lots of Mexican social security law. Lots. I couldn’t tell you if it’s really getting that much better, but I can certainly tell you that it’s getting a lot longer.

In the days of the PRI, social security law was vague, like a set of suggestions for benefits and practices.

The 1995 Social Insurance Law (Ley del Seguro Social or Ley del IMSS) was a little bit more detailed and longer.

The 2007 Social Security for State Workers Law (Ley del ISSSTE) is downright tedious. It’s long and filled with lots of legalese and technical language that just wasn’t there before.

On the one hand, perhaps you might argue that privatized pensions require more detailed legislation. But, even PAYGO systems are still pensions and probably deserved or required just as much detail in the legislation.

On the other hand, I suspect that the changes in (this piece or type of ) legislation have more to do with two recent trends. First, the authors of the laws have changed; this law was drafted by a bunch of economists in the Ministry of Finance, rather than party or union leaders. Second, now politicians want to use laws to “lock in” certain types of transparent or narrow behaviors, whereas the PRI wanted laws to be vague and flexible.

I’m less familiar with other types of legislation in Mexico or even legislation in other Latin American countries that have experienced dual transitions (in this case, the rise of neoliberal economists/technocrats and democratization). But, I wonder if this trend is occurring in other legislative domains and in other places? And how would you measure the “quality” of legislation? You could certainly measure its length. You could maybe use some form of discourse analysis to compare the types of language used. You could probably come up with some dimension of narrow versus flexible (or open-to-interpretation) legislation.

I believe some researchers on American politics have analyzed patterns of legislation and may offer some methodological and theoretical insights. In countries like Mexico, I would expect the changes in the form legislation takes to vary over time due to increased democratization and efforts to tie the hands of future elected officials. I’d also expect the changes in legislation to vary across types of legislation, with laws related to structural reforms and political liberalization to be more detailed and constraining.

It’s not something I have time to research now (being neck deep in the ISSSTE privatization…) but it’s curious.

Time to get both R and WinEdt installed and working properly on my Vista laptop: 2+ hours.

I’m guessing it will be another 5 to produce the scatterplot with confidence intervals that has led me to R in the first place.

I’ve never listed statistical software on my CV before. I always assumed that folks would know that I’m proficient at various packages if I use various methods in my research and teach a graduate level baby-stats course. But, if my progress with R goes how I think it is likely to go, I can now understand the temptation to add it to your CV–that is, something that takes so much time should get its own line.

Update: I gave up. I found a package in Stata that will do what I need. Also, I discovered that the iTunes download of Season 3 of Veronica Mars is what ate all my laptop disk space–a mystery that has been plaguing me for a couple of weeks.

Update 2: I am the Stata graph master!

The 2005 proposal to privatize government pensions in Mexico defined one of the family beneficiaries as:

“El conyuge, cualquiera que sea su genero, o a falta de este, el varon o la mujer con quiern, segun sea el caso, la Trabajadora o el Trabajador o el Pensionado o la Pensionada ha vivido como si fuera su conyuge durante los cinco anso anteriores o con uien tuviese uno o mas hijos(as), siempre ue ambos permanezcan libres de matrimonio.” [apologies for the lack of accents]

The clause, I think, is meant to say that a female worker can cover her husband and count him as a beneficiary. In the IMSS system, female workers can only cover her husband if he is unable to work. (I don’t remember off-hand the rules under the 1983 ISSSTE law.)

However, the way the clause is written, it seems to me, could open the door to same-sex couples claiming benefits.

I wonder if this has happened yet?

Update: It seems this loophole was found and closed in the final version of the law.

On the one hand, the recent tendency of the Mexican government (including various bureaucracies) and civil society organizations to post all sorts of documents on the web and the availability of online newspaper archives means that I can easily download a couple of GB of information related to President Calderon’s March 2007 privatization of ISSSTE pensions.

On the other hand, I can easily download a couple of GB of information related to President Calderon’s March 2007 privatization of ISSSTE pensions.

Given that I have been periodically checking various government and organization websites since the proposals first went public in 2003-04, I have many, many files in many, many folders. For instance, I have about 5 versions of a Powerpoint presentation of the Ministry of Finance regarding the ISSSTE privatization proposal that are dated between 2004 and 2006.

Whereas before (i.e., pre-2001) the challenge was getting information, now the challenge is figuring out what information is useful.

Several more states have approved proposed national electoral reforms. Most look like they are designed to reduce negative campaigning and improve transparency of funding. I’m not holding my breath for real change.

As anyone who has ever asked me how I like Atlanta will know, one of my only complaints about the city is the lack of good Texas-style (which is the ONLY style, really) BBQ. (One of my other complaints is no real Mexican food, but that’s another post.)

So, imagine my hope when I saw that a place purporting to have Texas-style BBQ had opened down the road from my neighborhood. In fact, it’s located on the way home from work. Of course, I had written the place off entirely even without trying it because Brian and I have been repeatedly disappointed by places claiming to have real BBQ or real Mexican. Then, I saw a review in a local rag that raved, so I convinced a skeptical Brian to try it Saturday afternoon on our way home from the university library. (Yes…we spend our Saturday afternoons at either the Emory or GSU libraries.)

I had the brisket plate with potato salad and onion rings. Brian had the mixed plate of brisket and chicken with potato salad and beans. Neither of us ordered cole slaw because they make it with vinegar. That’s a no-no for Texas BBQ.

The brisket was good–indeed better than any other I’ve had in Atlanta. But they cut it too thick and it didn’t have enough pink smoky goodness. It was even better the next day at home when I reheated it and added Stubb’s spicy BBQ sauce.

Their BBQ sauce was too thin and too sweet. Perhaps they are trying to appeal to the tastes of the South, but you shouldn’t mess with Texas BBQ. It would also be nice if they added a spicy option.

The potato salad had too much mustard.

They didn’t have cornbread. They did have Brunswick Stew (which I’ve never seen at a Texas BBQ joint).

The chicken wasn’t smoked. The beans were too sweet.

So, it was only partially authentic, and Brian has declared he won’t go back (“It’s just too depressing…”).

I will go back, but only to get brisked to go when I’m really desperate for a taste of Texas. I’ll take it home and add a little Stubb’s.

So while it’s not perfect, it’s the closest I’ve found in Atlanta so far, so I’ll just have to accept it.

No, I haven’t fallen off the face of the earth. I’ve just been distracted by work.

The week after classes started, I left for Chicago to present a paper at the annual meeting of the APSA. My paper (corrected link) was very well-received, indeed the comments left me blushing with embarrassment. I also attended a short course on using R to make graphs. I really just wanted a cheap (in terms of time invested) way to learn about R, and I believe I got that and then some. I suspect I’ll be using R sometime soon.

Then, the next week, I left for Rome and Florence to present another paper (written with Vicki Birchfield) at the ISA-RC19 conference. Unfortunately, our discussant wasn’t able to attend at the last minute, so we didn’t get much in the way of feedback. On the other hand, I really liked Rome and thought Florence was ok. Brian took over 2000 photos, a handful of which are online. (While I was at the conference, he saw just about every work of art in Florence.)

Now, back in Atlanta, I’ve been buried in 100+ emails, meetings with my various RAs and writing. It’s a nice start to the semester, but a little hectic.

Maybe someday I’ll have time to read the news again. Unfortunately, it won’t be before the end of the month.

Luckily, “teacher/professor” is listed as an appropriate job. Unfortunately, W is apparently the same personality type. But, then again, so are Lucy and Leia.

Back to work.

Returned to the office today to find R&Rs from CP and the J of Latin American Studies waiting for me. This is in addition to R&Rs from PS and J of Policy Modeling that I received earlier this summer.

Oh…and there’s that ~$40K grant that Andrew Roberts and I got this summer, too.

Happy. Happy. Joy. Joy.

Posting will be light for the next 7 weeks as I crank out lots of work.

I just returned from this summer’s PolMeth meeting at Penn State. Burt and Suzie did a great job hosting the meeting. This was my 5th Polmeth conference, second as a faculty member. This year the format changed to allow more people to attend and participate. I heard rumblings among some of the younger core of polmethers about the new format. Understandably, some of the core group of methodologists resent the presence of those they perceive as interlopers who make the conference too big and impersonal for their tastes. True, this year’s presentations sometimes lacked the humor, inside running jokes, and quick wit of presentations from earlier conferences. At the same time, as one of the applied methodologists (or interlopers) who attends the meetings (and by the way, pays my Polmeth dues regularly), I’m grateful for the opportunity to attend what amounts to a 4 day seminar on cutting edge methods. Further, it seems that the old core is busy replicating the smaller polmeth experience with small meetings in the bay and NYC areas, which should placate those who resent the growth in popularity of the summer meeting.

From my perspective, if you want applied methodologists and the discipline in general to adopt more sophisticated methods (i.e., you want to proselytize to the masses), you have to let the masses join your flock and attend your church.

I’ve been working 12+ hour days the last few days. Today, I’m the only one in the building and have been here since lunchtime. For the last hour, the network, including internet and printing, has been down and the statistical software I’ve been using (HLM) has been refusing to run commands, either fatally terminating the program or just not running the options/tests I’ve requested.

I feel like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football, and Sally is there to pull it away at the last minute.

AAARGH!!!

Does this mean I can stop for the day and go see Harry Potter instead?

I spent the last seven hours troubleshooting SPSS syntax files. I finally got them all recoded and merged into one megafile of almost 400K respondents from 15 multinational surveys between 1985 and 2004.

[Finally got that one file to work, though I’m not sure how. I removed all blank spaces in the file and coded all variables as scaler, and then it worked. Thanks Chris!]

Now, I’m back home with three new Buffy DVDs from Netflix (Discs 2-4 from Season 6) and a chocolate frosty from Wendy’s. I’m ready for what Brian called a “Stats Party”! Let the fun begin!

… debugging data analysis syntax files.

In particular, I hate the following SPSS error message, for which I can find no explanation:

>Warning # 511
>A division by zero has been attempted on the indicated command. The result
>has been set to the system-missing value.

>Command line: 58 Current case: 11444 Current splitfile group: 1

The offending code:

*Re-code for education*.
RECODE educyrs (93 thru 99=SYSMIS) (0=SYSMIS).
AGGREGATE OUTFILE = edumeans.sav
/BREAK=cnty
/sdedu = SD(educyrs)
/meanedu=MEAN(educyrs) .

I’ve gone to the case where the problem begins and there’s data there. I’ve double-checked the system missing codes. I’ve looked at the group means, etc. I’ve done everything but pull my hair out.

It appears the Texas Education Agency has ordered the closing of my former high school due to unacceptable academic standards and progress.

My initial reaction was one of disappointment. The first year that I attended was the first year that mandatory busing was not used to integrate the school. Instead, they opened a Liberal Arts Academy, which has since been moved to another East Side campus.

Ironically (or perhaps not so ironically), my freshman year was also the first year that students from my neighborhood would be bused to Johnston, 10 miles away. Though another high school was geographically closer, it was just on the West side of I-35, which meant it was a world away. I always thought that it was strange that they ended busing for integration only to bus a bunch of minority kids from a low income area to a low income area on the East Side, rather than busing us to a school on the West side. But I digress….

When I attend Johnston, the dropout and retention rates were high, though test scores, including those for minority students, were not too bad. The high dropout rates were most evident at the football pep rallies, where the freshman always won the spirit stick for yelling the loudest. The freshman class was always 800+; my graduation class had just over 200–at least 70 of them high achieving Academy kids. It seems the test scores were pretty bad back then, too.

However, once they moved the LAA to Johnston, even voluntary integration ended at Johnston. The percentage of white students fell from 20% when I was a Junior in 1991 to 1.9% in 2005. Some of that drop was due to the opening of a new high school in 2000 (?) to serve students in Southeast Austin, so they were no longer bused to Johnston as I was. Since I graduated in 1992, this campus has seen a steady stream of new school administrators, almost every year.

I’m still annoyed that the AISD abandoned Johnston and ended integration–which surely made a resource-poor school even worse off. (I remember that teachers would put plastic garbage cans in the hall to catch water in the numerous places that the roof leaked…) On the other hand, Johnston had failed to serve its core population for a long time, and in some ways, the ‘integration’–voluntary or otherwise–only hid, by inflating test scores and other school success indicators, the real failure of the school and the school district to educate and prepare kids on Austin’s East Side.

So if current Johnston students are spread far and wide throughout Austin high schools, I may be saddened by the closing of my old school, but at least I’ll be hopeful that those students will get the attention and resources they deserve elsewhere.

Earlier this week marked the 10th anniversary of the implementation of Mexico’s privatized pension system. El Norte ran a couple of stories on the issues facing the pension system, including these two in which I am quoted.

This front page story appeared next to a photo of one of my favorite players on the Seleccion Mexicana, second only to Oswaldo. Since they both play for the Chivas, I might have to realign my futbol allegiances. Thank goodness they don’t play for America because I don’t think I could handle that.

For a couple of days, the first story was among the 5 most emailed stories on the Reforma website.

It pours.

That’s all.

PS. If any reader has access to the news stories on pensions in El Norte that appeared July 1, I’d be super grateful for an email copy (michelle.dion@gmail.com).