Author: michelle

Three new typewritten pages.

Of course, it’s the first real progress since before I went to Monterrey. This service stuff can be really disruptive, even during the summer.

I think I’m back in the groove now; just wish it hadn’t taken so long.

Mance has a nice dog bed, in a coveted spot next to my desk at home. However, it seems that the cats have kicked him out of the bed, and he has to sleep on the hard floor.

More like the omega dog.

Dr. Simi

He’s also mentioned in a recent Reuters piece on the Mexican presidential candidates:

Some of the most colorful campaigners cannot legally run because no political party will back them.

They include oddball magnate Victor Gonzalez, who has adopted the persona of his pharmacy chain’s rotund and grandfatherly mascot, “Dr Simi,” with fluffy white hair and mustache.

Claiming more Mexican fans than Mickey Mouse, and fond of models in mini-skirts, Gonzalez hires people to wear spongy Dr Simi costumes and dance outside his pharmacies.

“I have money but I earned it honestly. I have women but I am single. The people love these things,” he said recently.

Early yesterday, the state government of Oaxaca decided to raid the encampments of striking teachers in the capital city. Many people were injured. La Jornada has several stories covering the events. Though Oaxaca is the center of disident teacher unions, the central leadership of the SNTE headed by Elba Esther Gordillo has denounced the government action, and other sections of the teachers’ union have announced their solidarity with the Oaxacan teachers.

In the aftermath, the national Secretary of State (and former Secretary of Labor) has announced that there will be no more displays of force in Oaxaca; human rights groups are calling foul; and Subcommandante Marcos chimed in.

Or, perhaps, pre- and post-debate.

There’s this NYTimes article from June 4.

And, there’s this LATimes article from June 15.

Both about AMLO.

Refoma’s latest poll gives AMLO a narrow lead over Calderon following last week’s debates. This is signifcant since the Reforma polls were the first to suggest Calderon had a lead in early May. Since AMLO claimed the May polls were bogus when they said he was behind, it will be interesting to see how he responds to news that he is now ahead.

Trivia tidbit: The lead pollster for Reforma is a U of Michigan political science Ph.D. (ITAM professor, Publications, and CV)

Here’s the Bloomberg update.

Two.

And the second one is tiny.

This poll suggests that AMLO has a slight edge over Calderon, even a little beyond the margin of error. It’s the first to be published (that I know of, since Reforma requires a subscription for their content) since the televised debates last week.

Here’s Bloomberg’s coverage.

Here’s the Milenio article in Spanish.

UPDATE: The poll by El Universal suggests that Calderon has a narrow lead. Just goes to show how subtle differences in question wording and order may have an effect on poll results.

From my periodic series of photos of people in funny suits…..

It’s periodic because I only seem to be able to take these photos when I’m in Mexico.

Other photos from my Monterrey trip are posted to flickr.

Today I spent time trying to figure out how to keep a baby possum out of our kitchen (getting a trap from the county animal control and taking a trip to Lowe’s to figure out how to cover the hole s/he uses behind the oven), getting a new Mexico guide for my trip tomorrow (since I gave my old guide to a D.F. friend who was planning a trip to Oaxaca when I last left Mexico; getting the new guide required stops at 2 BnN), packing for my trip tomorrow (clothes and work-related stuff); and fending off a really bad headache (unsuccessfully).

So no progress.

And there will probably be no posts for the weekend, since I’m taking a trip to Monterrey to set up a new study abroad program for Summer 07 at ITESM. It’s not the D.F. (by a long shot) but it will have to do. At least there will be real tacos and chilaquiles, and maybe some fruit salad or Mexican-style sushi (which reminds me….I should tell you my story about trying to find good, authentic chilaquiles in Atlanta, sometime). My trip may also include a baseball game, but only because I need good photos to help recruit for the study abroad (uhmmm, right).

Anything else I should do?

Stay on task.

On YouTube.

Typed up more notes. Not as much as I’d like.

But also had a very productive 2 hour meeting for a service project that I am working on. Since the project is paying some of my summer salary, I shouldn’t complain too much. Also, I handled some things pending for a scouting trip I’m taking to Monterrey on Thursday to set up a study abroad for next summer.

Tomorrow, I’m doing nothing but staying at home to work, though.

So earlier today, a commenter asked my opinion about recent developments in Mexico, and I said I’d have to follow-up later. Specifically, anonymous (who appears to be from the D.F.) wants to know what I think about the fact that gunmen shot at the armored SUV of the wife of a businessman who is in jail after videos surfaced two years ago showing him bribing a D.F. official and close aide of Lopez Obrador. This happened this morning, the day that new videos, documenting corruption by another AMLO-government official, were to be presented.

Since I can’t watch the debates, and I’m too zapped to work on the book (ok, that’s a bit of an excuse, I am just procrastinating a bit, but I’ll get back to work after I post), I poked around the interweb a bit to see what I could find.

Here’s the crop of articles that I skimmed quickly, followed by my reaction:

Milenio overview
Hearsay description of contents of videos that weren’t released (El Universal)
(I won’t speculate or comment on the fact that Robles and Ahumado chat on the phone.)
Lopez Obrador’s campaign claims videos won’t hurt him (El Economista)
Some inconsistencies hamper the investigation of the gun attacks (El Economista)–this is the story that is repeated most often

My summary of what happened and a little background for readers

A couple of years ago, while AMLO was Mayor of Mexico City (affectionately known as the D.F.), videos surfaced of a businessman (Ahumado) giving large bribes to a close aide of AMLO in the city government. The videos showed the aide grossly stuffing large bills into his pockets, etc. Lopez Obrador was able to claim that he didn’t know what his aides were up to and pretty well distanced himself from the corruption scandal. Some, however, continue to be skeptical…and skepticism is always helpful when you’re talking about Mexican politics.

Fast forward to now. Sometime recently (I don’t know exactly when; I haven’t followed it that closely), the businessman’s wife and/or others have said they would be releasing additional videos that further implicate officials in Lopez Obrador’s government of corruption. Those videos were to be released today. This morning at 6:30am, someone shot at the wife’s SUV as she took her children to school. Nine to ten bullets hit the vehicle.

The following items currently being reported lend themselves to interesting speculation and/or conspiracy building:

The presentation of the videos has now been postponed indefinitely, according to the wife.

The wife says all this could be cleared up if they would allow journalists to interview her husband.

The police claim that there are some problematic inconsistencies in the witness accounts of the shootings.

I’m fairly agnostic about the interpretation of events, but I can imagine how the pro-AMLO and anti-AMLO camps will try to spin these events.

The pro-AMLO spin:

This is just another example of the conspiracy against AMLO (possibly even engineered by Salinas). The videos won’t prove anything and probably don’t even have anything damaging. It’s all a stunt to try to make AMLO look bad. The videos, the shooting (the Suburban was armored, after all, so it wasn’t a serious attempt), the withdrawal of the videos is all a well-orchestrated stunt to smear AMLO just before the debates. If the videos really were damaging, they would have presented them anyway. They were trying to use the videos to blackmail the PRD city government into giving Ahumado certain privileges. This just goes to show how far the anti-AMLO forces will go to keep him out of office.

The anti-AMLO spin:

This is just more evidence of the bad, marginal, corrupt way that AMLO and his clique do politics. It’s not surprising given the types of seedy types his government has cultivated for support. (I’m imagining here people thinking about AMLO’s ties to leaders in some poor barrios of Mexico City.) Of course, some gangster shot at Ahumado’s wife to try to intimidate her into not releasing the videos, and apparently it has worked. If we elect AMLO, this is the type of gangsterism and lawlessness that we can expect to continue. Oh, and of course the pro-AMLO police are going to make it seem like a set-up; we all know we can’t trust the police.

So which is the truth? Heck, if I know.

The pro-AMLO position smacks of conspiracy-theory craziness, and the anti-AMLO position makes you wonder if supporters of AMLO would really be dumb enough to think that shooting at Ahumado’s wife would be better for AMLO than the videos being released. If his supporters are that simple-minded….Well, it doesn’t say a lot for him even if he is elected.

Or, at least I can’t get the feed to work. Maybe it’s blocking foreign IP addresses?

So, I’ll have to wait until tomorrow to watch the videos on YouTube.

Bummer. I guess that means I get back to work now.

If you’re interested in watching or listening to tonight’s second debate among Mexico’s presidential candidates for the upcoming election, the Federal Electoral Commission Institute will be streaming it online at 8:30pm CST. This is the only official debate feed of the debate among the candidates.

Update: Read more about the rules and content of the debates.

Yesterday, I gathered all the materials for one chapter and typed notes for the chapter, too. Not as much progress as I would have liked, and I would hope that today would be better except that I have a service-related meeting this afternoon and will need to spend about an hour preparing for that. Grrr.

NOTE TO SELF: Next time I plan to write a book (or even just in general), type notes/summaries of the things I read as a I read them.

Read this FT article.

Pages written: 1-2
Chapters reorganized and outlined, but not entirely revised yet: 1

Goal for tomorrow: Finish outlining/taking notes for rest of chapter. Begin shaping it into final form. Get more done!

PS. Of course, I know no one really cares about my progress except me…but I find that it’s helpful to think that I’m going to post my progress each night before bed.

Caleron and Lopez Obrador in online news and searches.