Professor of Political Science & Sen. Wm. McMaster Chair in Gender & Methodology, McMaster University
Historical re-enactment, Mexican style
Despite the hype in the U.S., Cinco de Mayo is one of the less celebrated national holidays in Mexico. Independence Day and the Day of the Revolution are considered more important.
But, to some Mexicans, the victory over the French on the Cinco de Mayo is worth re-enacting. Hundreds participated in the festivities today.
Cinco de Mayo re-enactment from El Universal
Fox, the Government of Change….of opinion
By El Licenciado, Garcí in El Financiero.
Fox’s campaign was the “Alliance for Change” and he calls his government, the “Government of Change.” TV ads and highway billboards promote government projects saying “El Gobierno de Cambio cumple”; the government of change fulfills its word.
Mexico has another change problem. As anyone who has visited knows, vendors, stores, and restaurants rarely have change. Want to buy a $.75 soda with a $5 bill? Want to pay for a $4 taxi ride with a $10 bill? You’re out of luck because everyone is out of change.
So my favorite joke when vendors or stores tell me that they don’t have change for my purchase is “Right. What Mexico lacks is change, right? In more ways than one, huh?” They seem to get a kick out of that, or they just humor the poor gringa.
The Economist on Mexico
The Economist has an update on AMLO in Mexico. The article mentions that now Lopez Obrador will need to run on a positive platform, rather than a martyr struggling against injustice. True, true.
The U.S./U.K. press has made a lot of noise about AMLO’s populist past. But something I read in the print edition of La Jornada rang truer for me. Someone recently asked AMLO about his political stance and he replied that his radical days were over: “Now I am a politician of the Center.” Here’s the link.
I’d say he’s still left of center, but at least he understands the need to moderate his position and rhetoric. Maybe he learned from Lula. Or maybe he realizes that moderating his position, promising not to punish opponents, and keeping a lid on the disatisfaction of his supporters are the factors that helped save his skin.
Pity link
Munger is worried about his place in the TTLB Ecosystem. Maybe this will help.
What happens now?
Yesterday, an announcement was made that they would not press charges against AMLO because the penalties are not clear in the law. However, some legal analysts believe the decision does not automatically close the case, nor does it automatically restore his mojo fuero.
Most troubling is the decision by the owners of the disputed property to pursue their case. Promoters international Santa Fe has 15 days from today to file another injunction, and their lawyers say that they will continue to pursue the case until the land is returned or they are paid its value. I suspect they will get their land or be paid off.
Lopez Obrador will remain the mayor of the DF until mid-June, when he will step down to begin his pre-campaign for the PRD nomination for President. In the meantime, he is calling for a national agreement or pact among all the political parties and actors that the 2006 elections will be free, fair, and transparent, including campaign finance. Fox has indicated that such an agreement is not necessary since Mexico has a strong independent electoral agency.
Here’s a brief timeline of the last year of desafuero events.
I hate to say that I told you so….
But, I told you so.
This afternoon, the Attorney General’s office dropped the charges against Lopez Obrador. Citing the argument used by AMLO’s lawyers, the AG’s office claimed the penalties for disobeying a court order are not clear, though they still hold him responsible for the conflict.
ALMO interpreted the decision as a victory for the people.
The owner of the disputed land still plans to sue to receive compensation for the appropriation.
Goody. Now, maybe I can get some interviews done.
Score 1 for Dr. Dion. I should really be paid to predict these things.
Fox and AMLO to meet face to face this Friday
According to Lopez Obrador, the change of heart by President Fox last week was not the result of some secret negotiation. They have yet to meet, but plan to do so this Friday. Lopez Obrador says that they should take advantage of the truce to be prudent and conciliatory.
According to Fox, the AMLO desafuero issue is resolved. The new AG will review the file and decide what to do. But, Fox maintains that last week’s announcement about the change in the AG’s office was necessary to ensure that the 2006 elections are considered open and democratic.
When Fox and AMLO meet on Friday, they will be alone, unlike earlier meetings where each brought political backup. Fox is trying to downplay the meeting, saying it will be just another work meeting to discuss policy, including public safety and the Seguro Popular.
Political doublespeak
In a press conference yesterday, Secretary of State Creel made clear that he does not intend to leave the cabinet, despite suggestions by the President’s spokesperson to the contrary. This exchange followed:
La Jornada: -Cuándo dice usted que los tiempos del gobierno sólo los fija el Presidente, ¿está descalificando al vocero de la Presidencia de la República?
Creel: -Por eso lo dije de esa manera, con toda intencionalidad, porque de esto solamente habla el Presidente de la República, y nadie más, en función de los tiempos al interior del gobierno.
“No, I’m not contradicting the President’s spokesman; I’m just saying something different.”
Come. on.
The good news is, however, that Creel will push for an extended legislative session. They were going to decide on an extraordinary session today. This is good because it means that many of the people that I want to interview will stay in town that much longer. It is all about me, and my research, after all.
Oh where, oh where has his fuero gone?
Yesterday (or day before yesterday), PRIista legislators were wondering how they could give Lopez Obrador his fuero back. This after PRI leader Enrique Jackson publicly said they should restore AMLO’s immunity.
As with most legal questions in Mexico (including mundane things like whether the prohibition against tinted windows applies to all cars in the DF or just those registered here), legal experts do not agree on when or how AMLO would recover his immunity. Some think he gets it back as soon as the AG’s office decides not to prosecute the Encino case; others think it will take an act of Congress.
Actors’ strike declared illegal; cast member of Los Simpson let go
According to an article in La Jornada, the Secretary of Labor has declared illegal a strike by actors who dub foreign television shows. One of the cast members of Los Simpson was fired after working for the agency for 15 years. The actor also dubbed roles on He-Man and Transformers.
Los Simpson are much beloved in Mexico, though little understood, I think. The voices are good, but very different from their English equivalents. I’ve actually been to a party where Mexicans debated whether Los Simpsons was better in English or Spanish.
New U.S. social security poll
Paul lists some interesting poll results at the Public Brewery.
It doesn’t surprise me that many are skeptical of Bush’s social security privatization. I have family members who are devout Republicans who disagree with the Shrub on this one.
Dangerous work, if you can get it
At a recent Congress, the Director of UNESCO highlighted increasing violence against reporters. In 2004-05, 70 have died.
Reporters without Borders cite the war on terror as the cause of many deaths. 51 by their count.
Updated 5/4: In a follow-up article, Colombia is the most dangerous country in the Americas for reporters. In Mexico, the national press is fairly secure, but regional and local reporters risk danger from drug cartels and mafiasos.
Presidential candidate nomination news
The election of the PRD’s 2006 candidate will be September 18. They also expanded the size of the CEN (governing body).
The PAN is also considering when they will elect their presidential candidate.
More about Sunday’s Labor Day activities
The independent labor unions rejected Fox’s proposed labor law revisions and privatization of the energy (petro & electricity) sector.
The official unions had their own ceremony.
In the official executive ceremony, workers and employers expressed support for Fox’s new stance on AMLO.
On Saturday, plans for a new teachers’ union in the D.F. were announced. The teachers plan to leave the SNTE, and would eventually like to form a Federation of independent teachers unions.
The patron saint of Narcotraffickers…
In today’s La Jornada, there’s an interesting story about an informal tour of narcotraficantes that has sprung up in Sinaloa. Narcotraficantes are drug lords and traffickers.
According to the story, you can visit a small temple with a shrine to the patron saint of drug traffickers, Bandido “Generoso” Jesús Malverd. He was known for giving money back to the community. He’s been worshipped as a saint for over 130 years.
Image of patron saint in chapel in Sinaloa from La Jornada.
According to the story, in Culiacan the capital of Sinaloa, there is 1 car per every 4.5 inhabitants, while the national average is 1 car per 15. There are car dealers for Lincoln, Volvo, Toyota, Cadillac, and Hummer. According to one of the salesmen, it’s only by reputation that the cars are bought with drug money. Though he did admit that many paid with cash.
The story also talks about lavish homes with murals, columns, and all sorts of gaudy decoration. And many people walk about with a lot of diamonds and other ostentatious jewelry.
Drug trafficking began in Sinaloa at the beginning of the 20th century. According to the article, this was due to its proximity to the US, a country that prohibits many illicit substances. In the 1950s, wars between rivals were so common that Culiacan became known as a “Chicago con gangsters de huarache.” (Huaraches are traditional peasant sandals.)
One of the other interesting aspects of the drug trafficking culture is the music, which is not mentioned in the article. Narcocorridos are songs that tell the high tales of drug smuggling. They also have a long history. During the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917) corridos were songs that told stories related to the Revolution and its heros. The narcocorridos glamourize (mostly) the lives of drug runners. The most famous group is Los Tigres del Norte. They have an extensive discography. Below is an excerpt of one of my favorite Tigres songs, “Pacas de un Kilo”
In it, the singer mentions that he’s of a modest height, has a significant farm, and warns listeners that if they meet him, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t tell you his last names. You can find discs of Tigres hits online at Amazon. There’s also an interesting book about narcocorridos written by a guy who hitched rides with truckdrivers along the border. You can also listen to an NPR story about the group.
That’s your bit of Mexican cultural history for the month.
Fox announces Social Protection Institute
As part of Labor Day festivities, Fox announced the creation of a new Social Protection Institute. Since I’ve studied Mexican social security extensively, the new Institute is puzzling in many respects.
The new Institute is going to be housed in the Secretary of Social Development (SEDESOL) and more specifically in Fox’s targeted poverty alleviation program “Oportunidades.” This just doesn’t make public policy sense. Political sense, maybe, but from a public policy perspective, no.
Social “protection” in Mexico is provided mainly by two large social security institutions, the IMSS (private sector) and the ISSSTE (public sector). (Email me for a parts of my book ms if you’re interested in an overiew of 80 years of social security policy in Mexico.) The SEDESOL was originally created under Salinas to run his much maligned and much politically manipulated poverty alleviation program, PRONASOL (see my published paper on this).
PRONASOL morphed into Progresa under Zedillo, and then morphed again into Oportunidades under Fox. Granted, Progresa and Oportunidades have better reputations than PRONASOL (i.e., less corruption, manipulation for political ends, etc.), though recent research suggests that Progresa may have been politically maniuplated as well. (Here, I’m thinking of a paper presented by Berkeley Grad Student Tina Green at the MPSA meeting in Chicago, but since her paper isn’t online I can’t provide you a link…)
Fox’s poverty alleviation program (Oportunidades) is essentially an income transfer to poor families so that they can buy food, health care, etc. in the private market.
Anyway, the point is that Fox is creating this Institute within Oportunidades within the Social Development Ministry, rather than housing it either in one of the two social security institutes or creating some overarching coordinating institute. Targeted income tranfers to the poor are not “social protection” and it’s ludicrous to create an institute to “protect social security” inside one of the bureaucracies designed to replace formal social security programs.
This is just one more example of how social security (not just pensions in the U.S. sense, but health insurance, etc.) is being privatized piece by piece in Mexico and being replaced with targeted transfers to the poor, a la the U.S. welfare system. It reflects an overall shift in Mexico’s welfare regime toward a liberal model. (Again, if you want to hear more about this, email me for book chapters.)
So, from my point of view and a public policy perspective, creating this Institute in SEDESOL makes little sense. From a political point of view it makes tons of sense.
Why? Because the IMSS and to a lesser extent the ISSSTE bureaucracies have been opposed to efforts to privatize pensions, health care, and other benefits provided by these agencies. That’s why the Zedillo administration had to create a separate “think tank” to draft the 1995 pension privatization plan–to isolate it from IMSS and the unions. (But I digress….as one is likely to do when discussing your research.)
By creating an “Institute of Social Protection” separate from the institutions that have historically provided social protection, Fox can ensure that studies and policy proposals that come out of the Institute are more likely to promote privatization and similar reforms of social protection. Proposals are likely to emphasize targeted benefits for the poor, since that has been SEDESOL’s primary focus. Now, I’m not against benefits for the poor, but I am against politically manipulated policies that become new forms of clientelism. I’m also against such policies when they are proposed as replacements for traditional social security. This has been the tendency of late in Mexico.
In sum, Fox’s announcement of this new Institute should be viewed with the same skepticism as Bush’s claims that the’s going to “strengthen social security” through privatization.
More procrastination….
From Blogthings:
| American Cities That Best Fit You: |
| 60% Chicago |
| 60% Honolulu |
| 60% Los Angeles |
| 60% Miami |
| 60% Philadelphia |
Which American Cities Best Fit You? and….
|
Your Inner European is Italian! |
Professorial procrastination
Compliments of Dr. Crazy. My favorites from her list:
Read blogs.
Feel guilty about reading blogs and not commenting and not posting on your own blog, and so post on your blog about nonsense like alternatives to academic work.
Decide, at 11 PM at night, to clean out closet and sort laundry.
American Idol.
Re-read every single Judith Krantz/Anne Rice/etc. novel that you own from beginning to end.
While procrastinating doing #1, I read #4 and realized I missed the first 15 minutes of the results show, broadcast here in Mexico City 2 weeks late and on Sundays. (I was sad to see Nadia leave.)
Though I don’t like Krantz or Rice, I have quickly run through the stack of mysteries that I bought while in Chicago for the Midwest PSA meeting. Spent an hour today reading the beginning of David Brown’s first thriller. Poorly written pap, but thrilling nonetheless.
Labor Day & AMLO
Today’s Labor Day march brought about 100K people to the Mexico City zocalo. According to the press, about half represented the CTM, the largest union confederation formally affiliated with the PRI, and the other half represented independent labor unions.
Unions reiterated their opposition to proposed reforms to the Federal Labor Law. Reforms have been on the political agenda of political parties since the 1980s, but building consensus is difficult.
In other news, AMLO is confident that the charges against him will be dropped this week. I’m a little more skeptical. It will probably take longer than that to negotiate a deal.
George Bush on Social Security reform
From Reuters/Yahoo.