Author: michelle

This will do nothing for the PRI’s credibility

Now, Chuayffet is saying Lopez Obrador should be given back his fuero. (I can’t resist, it just makes me think of Power’s mojo.)

According to La Jornada

El fracaso en el intento por inhabilitar al jefe de Gobierno del Distrito Federal provocó el cambio de discurso de Emilio Chuayffet Chemor, uno de los principales promotores de ese proceso, quien manifestó que los diputados “tenemos que devolverle el fuero. Andrés Manuel (López Obrador) debe gozar plenamente de su fuero”.

More later. I’m going out to see if I can find some AMLO souvenirs. Wish me luck.

UK seeks new “Q”

As a Bond fan (the books and the Sean Connery version), I enjoyed this story on Marketplace about a job announcement for a modern Q.

Pierce Brosnan is o.k., but there must be someone else who would be better. Brian and I regularly debate the alternatives. Who do you think would be the next great Bond? I’m partial to Hugh Jackman.

Minutemen followup

NPR’s ATC had this follow-up story to the Minutemen in Arizona.

One picture says it all

Below is a photo of Fox and his First Lady taken yesterday. Note the look of disdain and supressed grimace on the faces of the two social security workers behind them.

Photo in print and e-editions of La Jornada.

The political fallout…

What happens when a political leader convinces members of his party and those of another to pursue one strategy but then uses a different strategy himself? Lots of finger pointing.

Wednesday and yesterday President Fox indicated that he would meet with Lopez Obrador in an effort to clear up the political problems between the two men. Fox appeared to be relieved that things are going well so far.

Yesterday, accusations began to fly on all sides.

Beginning with the PRI. The PRI is now worried about their credibility and that they will be left holding the desafuero bag:

Los cambios de la estrategia gubernamental sobre Andrés Manuel López Obrador propiciaron ayer un ambiente de preocupación y encono contra Vicente Fox y el Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) entre las filas del priísmo duro que impulsó la inhabilitación del gobernante capitalino. Incluso, entre ese ambiente comenzaron a surgir voces para convocar de manera urgente y sin agenda a una reunión con Roberto Madrazo y su seguidor, Emilio Chuayffet, con objeto de explicar la naturaleza del arreglo político con Fox y el blanquiazul, porque tal hecho coloca al Revolucionario Institucional en una profunda crisis de credibilidad.

PRIista Chuayfett, and congressional leader of the PRI desafuero vote, now says:

“La política y la legalidad no están excluidas, de suerte que podemos encontrar soluciones a problemas políticos, sin que esto represente truncar la legalidad”.

This from the party that claimed before that the law was the law, that no one was above the law, and that the desafuero was a legal not political question. No wonder they are worried about credibility.

Even better is the quote from a PRIista who voted against the deafuero in early April:

“Cuando yo dije que la historia me iba a dar la razón, pensé que sería dentro de 20 años, pero me la dio en 20 días”.

Trans: When I said that historia was going to prove me right, I thought it would be in 20 years, but it was within 20 days.

President of the PRI and presidential hopeful, Roberto Madrazo, criticized Fox’s recent announcements, saying the President’s announcement was strange and that:

“…después de que hace cuando menos 12 meses se vive una confrontación estéril entre el Presidente y el jefe de Gobierno, que ha sumido al país en una verdadera confusión que comienza a amenazar la gobernabilidad democrática.”

So now it’s Fox who is threatening governability in Mexico. Interesting twist, if you believe the PRIistas.

And the PAN has not been unaffected either.

Yesterday, in Congress, several PANistas openly criticized Fox and Secretary of State Creel. One of the PANistas who actively supported the desafuero in the Chamber of Deputies pleaded with his colleagues to remain loyal to the party:

Desde la noche del miércoles y la mañana de este jueves, antes de la sesión ordinaria, el ánimo en la bancada del PAN era de desconcierto y enojo, a tal grado que en la plenaria matutina el mismo Juan de Dios Castro que hace 22 días, vociferante, defendió desde tribuna el juicio de procedencia y argumentó que podía adivinar las ”intenciones criminales” del jefe de Gobierno, ayer pidió a sus compañeros ”lealtad” al partido y respaldar la decisión del presidente Fox.

Some PANistas are even calling for Creel’s resignation. Included in this group is PANista Juan Molinar Horcasitas, who also happens to be a political scientist with a Ph.D. from UCSD.

Polling and social security

Paul has a very nice comparison of question framing, social security, and the interpretation of poll results at the Public Brewery. He shows how Fox frames questions in a way that is more likely to get responses in favor of Bush’s plan, while ABC/WP pollsters have a more neutral frame. He also compares the leads used in the poll stories.

This is a very good example. I’m going to bookmark it for the next time I teach American Government in Comparative Perspective (yes, I do teach that occasionally, as strange as it seems).

Profesora quoted on Slate.com

Bidisha Banerjee writes in “In Location Parentis”:

La Profesora Abstraída’s Michelle Dion, who lives in Mexico City, points out that Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, an ex-member of the PRI party, which opposes Fox, has warned Obrador “that his opponents would still want to remove him from the 2006 race and that ‘accidents happen.’

Note…PML was also a member of the PRD and recently attended the AMLO March of Silence. The statement was less a threat and more a friendly warning.

Cabinet reshuffle opens way for dialogue, maybe

I wouldn’t want to be too optimistic, but the stalemate between Fox and AMLO might be nearing an end and dialogue might be near. As I mentioned yesterday, AMLO asked to meet with the President to discuss the political situation. Yesterday, Fox agreed to meet one-on-one with the Mexico City Mayor.

In part, this is possible because Fox accepted the resignation yesterday of the AG and 12 of his closest staff, including the Deputy AG who handled the case against AMLO. The former general who held the AG position said he did not want to be a political obstacle to Fox and the resolution of the crisis created by the desafuero. AMLO was pleased to hear about the resignation.

According to legal experts, the AG’s office has until Thursday to re-present its case against Lopez Obrador before the judge that rejected it last week. According to Fox’s speech, the AG’s office, under new leadership, will need to thoroughly review the file.

Disturbing, though, is the warning from ex-PRIsta, ex-PRDista Porfirio Muñoz Ledo who appeared with Lopez Obrador at the March of Silence on Sunday. He warned AMLO that his opponents would still want to remove him from the 2006 race and that “accidents happen.” Here’s his exchange with the reporter from La Jornada:

LJ: ¿Violencia?, ¿magnicidios?

PML: No quiero ser catastrofista y espero que nada ocurra, pero 1994 está muy cercano. Por ello, hay que reducir enconos y promover diálogos. Podemos hacer pactos indispensables antes de las elecciones.

That last bit is a reference to the assination of the President Secretary General (2nd in command) of the PRI and the PRI’s presidential candidate in 1994 in the months leading up to the election.

President Fox addresses nation, AG & some staff step down

Last night, Fox addressed the nation on television to announce that the Attorney General has resigned. First, here are the important parts of his speech. Analysis will follow.

Fox said:

El Presidente de México cree en la democracia y ha luchado gran parte de su vida, con millones de ciudadanos, para hacerla realidad en su patria.

Hoy, estoy convencido de que no hay mejor camino para hacer de México un país más libre, más participativo y más justo.

Fortalecer nuestra naciente democracia es la más alta responsabilidad que nos exige la realidad política del país. A todos nos compete contribuir a esta noble causa.

Siempre será mejor para nuestro México nuestra disposición al diálogo y no al desafío; nuestro propósito de conciliar y no de dividir. Nuestro futuro como país será promisorio si somos capaces de coincidir en lo fundamental en vez de confrontar estérilmente.

Como Jefe del Estado mexicano me corresponde promover la unidad del pueblo en defensa de las instituciones, de la legalidad y de los valores democráticos.

Quiero informarles que he decidido aceptar la renuncia que me ha presentado el Procurador General de la República, Rafael Macedo de la Concha….

… La Procuraduría revisará de manera exhaustiva el expediente de consignación del Jefe de Gobierno del Distrito Federal, buscando preservar dentro del marco de la ley la mayor armonía política del país.

Como gobernante, una de mis mayores preocupaciones ha sido ampliar los derechos de las y los ciudadanos, y adaptar nuestra legislación al derecho internacional.

En la iniciativa de Reforma Integral de Justicia y Seguridad, presentada por el Ejecutivo el año pasado, ya se contemplan la garantía de presunción de inocencia y la autonomía del Ministerio Público.

Además, he decidido enviar a la consideración del Congreso, una iniciativa para resguardar los derechos de los ciudadanos sujetos a juicio, en tanto no se dicte sentencia final y definitiva.

Ambas reformas contribuirán a dar certeza jurídica a los ciudadanos que enfrentan procesos legales.

Como Presidente de un país democrático, asumo mi deber de garantizar, en el ámbito de mis atribuciones, que el proceso electoral del 2006 sea legítimo y que cada partido político participe en un ámbito de apertura, de respeto, sometidos todos a la ley y en defensa de nuestras instituciones.

Mi Gobierno a nadie impedirá participar en la próxima contienda federal.

El compromiso que todos compartimos es a favor de la democracia y sólo con apego a la ley y mediante el diálogo podremos alcanzar la unidad y el progreso.

He begins by mentioning the importance of strengthening Mexico’s young democracy. Then, he says he has accepted the AG’s resignation. The AG’s office will thoroughly review the AMLO file to determine the next step. He mentions to legal reforms that he has or will submit to Congress. One would provide for the presumption of innocence, and the other would protect accused rights (presumably including political rights, like the right to run for office) until a case is resolved definitively. He claims that his government will not prevent anyone from participating in the 2006 elections.

Until a new AG is formally approved by Congress, Fox’s legal advisor will be heading the AG’s office.

Should I be nervous?

That someone at the State Department keeps reading my blog?

Desafuero update….

…what you’ve all been waiting for.

AMLO returned to work on Monday. The President’s office and the Deputy Attorney General continue to claim that he should not be at work. While legal scholars say otherwise.

The judge in the case rejected the AG’s bid to bring charges against AMLO without arresting him by allowing a couple of PANistas to pay his bail. The AG’s office will have to resubmit the charges, and formally arrest AMLO. The AG was hoping to avoid an arrest, which would enable AMLO to play the martyr.

There’s been more talk of ‘negotiation’ and ‘dialogue.’ AMLO called for a dialogue with President Fox during the March of Silence on Sunday. Since then, the President’s office has indicated they are willing to meet with AMLO when and where he proposed. Various leaders of the PAN and PRI support the idea of a dialogue. Of course, many people are skeptical of Fox’s sincerity.

And I thought my visa delays were bad…

Ok. I’ve been waiting for my work visa here in Mexico since August, in part due to a mistake by the Secretary for Foreign Relations here. They sent my paperwork to El Paso, rather than Austin. And since then, I’ve had to give them my passport and photos, etc. several times. For instance, my photos were accepted one month, then rejected a month later because my hair was down even though you could clearly see my ears.

Anyway, the U.S. Embassy here in Mexico city usually processes 2,000 appointments for a visa to go to the U.S. for work or vacation per day. In the entire country, they process 5,000 per day.

Due to staffing cuts, the waiting period for an appointment will be almost 2 months. After than, the time to receive your visa will be another 5 weeks. People who call the 1-900 number (yes, Mexicans pay by the minute) today, will not get an appointment until the 11th of July. Renewals will not get an appointment until June 13. And student or work visas will be seen after May 9th.

Some of the delays are surely due to heightened security checks, but others are caused by the staff cuts (probably because of budget constraints). Overall, however, the delays are likely to hurt commerce as families can’t take that trip to Disney World and business reps can’t attend meetings to expand cross-border trade.

Mexican Senators have been busy bees….

Yesterday, commissions discussed reforms to the financing of Pemex, the state oil company.

They also approved reforms to the extradition law.

Today, they plan to approve legislation to allow Mexicans abroad to vote.

How many attended AMLO’s rally?

According to the Secretary of Public Security of the DF, 1.2 million attended. According to the national Secretary of Public Security, only 120,000 attended.

What does it look like to you?

Image from La Jornada front page.

Apparently, the march also generated good business for the informal sector, selling t-shirts, banners, and masks. Maybe the desafuero will actually help the economy (read: incredulous).

Image from La Jornada.

The short guy is former president Salinas and the tall guy is Fox.

March of silence in support of AMLO

Today, a million (or more, according to some accounts) Mexicans marched from the equivalent of the White House to the main plaza in Mexico City in support of the Mayor, Lopez Obrador.

Image from El Universal

Image of Paseo de la Reforma from El Universal

Other images. Zocalo 1. Zocalo 2.

Of course, everyone was selling AMLO souvenirs along the way. Sorry to say, we did not get ours. Since the government had no problem deporting foreigners who participated in a Zapatista march years ago, I didn’t want to risk showing my very gringa face near the Zocalo today. Though, in hindsight, they might not have noticed me in a group of 1.2 million.

More on his speech later.

Mariachi’s in U.S. schools

I’m back, but way behind in the news…..

As a warm-up, there’s this story about Mariachi classes in public schools.

In my native Austin, several high school’s had mariachi bands back in the late 80s and early 90s. In elementary school, I remember putting on Cinco de Mayo presentations for our parents and learning to do dances that are now referred to as ‘ballet folklorico’. Nevermind that Cinco de Mayo is almost a non-holiday in Mexico.

Top secret mission…Shhhh…..

No posts will be made until Saturday a.m.

More on the desafuero of AMLO

According to the NYTimes, the AG’s office finally submitted the case against AMLO to a judge yesterday:

After days of mixed signals from the president, federal prosecutors finally sent their case against the embattled mayor of Mexico City to a judge on Wednesday, but then said the popular left-wing politician would not be arrested and sent to jail.

Instead, the prosecutors said two allies of President Vicente Fox would put up bail money for the mayor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, keeping him out of prison. The move seemed designed to deny Mr. López Obrador the chance to play the part of a Gandhi or the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., two people to whom he has compared himself.

Version from La Jornada:

”Sin embargo, en lugar de orden de aprehensión, la dependencia pidió una de comparecencia, y manejó en secreto que por la mañana dos militantes panistas pagaron 2 mil pesos de caución que el Ministerio Público Federal autorizó para que el jefe de Gobierno del Distrito Federal no pudiera ser encarcelado.

En absoluto hermetismo, la PGR manejó la existencia del acuerdo ministerial acerca de la caución y el pago de los 2 mil pesos que al filo de las 11 de la mañana realizaron los asambleístas del PAN Jorge Lara y Gabriela Cuevas….

[According to the Deputy AG:] “Dos ciudadanos mexicanos presentaron billete de depósito para que Andrés Manuel López Obrador goce de la libertad provisional desde este momento y, con fundamento en el artículo 416 del Código Federal de Procedimientos Penales que permite que un tercero otorgue garantía, fue aceptada.

Two PANistas were kind enough to pay AMLO’s bond so he won’t go to jail.

The AG’s office turned in the paperwork five minutes before the deadline yesterday. Is this a case of typical Mexican tardiness? Or, as some speculate, did the Deputy AG want a special judge on the case? More about the judge.

In related news, the PRD plans to reform their candidate selection procedures as necessary to ensure that AMLO can run for President in 2006.

Resolution to Ecuadorian crisis, redux

According to the NYTimes and Mexico City La Jornada, the Congress removed the president and replaced him with the Vice President in Ecuador.

AMLO en Villahermosa

Front page of La Jornada