Author: michelle

(Updates 2:48 a.m.) More revisions, 2 pages of notes, and   9    12 new pages.

Boy, do I really need my 9am chiropractor visit after sitting at my desk all afternoon/night.

7 pages and some outlining/reorganization of my argument.

Here’s the front page of the leftist press.

And here’s a picture of the meeting in the Zocalo.

Both from La Jornada

Over the last week, I haven’t been keeping close tabs on my daily progress. I made some organizational changes to Chapters 1 & 2. On Chapter 2, I took notes/wrote several pages.

Goal is to finish Chapter 2 today or tomorrow to circulate 1 & 2 to a couple of colleagues.

This interview is worth reading. I particularly like this point, made by Calderon:

It is more effective, in order to reduce migration, to build one kilometer of one highway in Guanajuato, than ten kilometers of the wall [in] Texas or Arizona.

The first paragraph of Greg’s post made me smile.

And we wonder why even our bright students don’t quite understand Latin American politics?

The full transcript in Spanish.

IFE does not have an English version online.

The IFE will certify the results, and another institution will declare the winner. Any effort to challenge the results will be handled by the TRIFE. It is likely that Lopez Obrador will mount a challenge to the results, and according to the ex-President of the IFE, such a challenge would not be out of the ordinary given the closeness of the race.

I think the election is over now, though.

Front pages of today’s paper

It looks like Calderon will soon be declared the new President of Mexico with less than 1% of the vote separating him from Lopez Obrador.

IFE has said in the past that it would not declare the result official until 100.00% of the results were in, given the closeness of the race. If IFE cannot demonstrate that 100% of the casillas/precincts have submitted their results, it will leave room for Lopez Obrador to cry foul.

And if 100% do indeed submit their results, the IFE would do well to investigate publicized accounts in the states of Mexico and Veracruz that IFE ballots and precinct materials were found in dumps. Unfortunately, until IFE adequately explains those events (stolen and planted material? phonies?), many AMLO supporters will distrust the results. That could create more governability problems than Calderon will already have with the divided Congress.

I sure would hate to be Ugalde. I don’t envy him his job.

Graph from El Universal.

Read their article.

And AMLO has a very narrow lead:

A las cuatro y cuarenta y siete de la tarde López Obrador con el 36.86 por ciento contra 34.61 por ciento de Calderón Hinojosa.

[Updates follow…]

And with more than 70% counted:

A las cinco y cuarenta de la tarde López Obrador con el 36.87 por ciento contra 34.56 por ciento de Calderón Hinojosa.

With 75% counted:

A las seis y cuarto de la tarde de 2.20 puntos la diferencia en favor del perredista. Se han computado más de 30 millones de votos. Faltarían diez millones de sufragios por contar.

With just over 80% counted:

A las 7:17 de la noche Lóipez Obrador contabiliza 36.78% contra 34.77% de Calderón Hinojosa. Se han computado 33 millones 516 mil 382 votos.

With 84% counted:

A las ocho y cuarto de la noche López Obrador tiene una ventaja de a 1.81 puntos con 84% de casillas computadas. López Obrador 36.53% contra 34.74% de Calderón Hinojosa….

…La votación de recabada hasta esta hora de 35 millones de sufragios, faltando cerca de siete millones de votos por contabilizar.

López Obrador tiene un colchón a su favor de más de 450 mil votos sobre Calderón Hinojosa….

…Fa.tan por contabilizar actas del norte del país como Chihuahua,Durango, Jalisco, Baja California, Sonora y en el sur, Yucatán.

Calderon has more support in the North, so the lead Lopez Obrador currently enjoys is likely to shrink even more. The PAN held a press conference and announced that the PRD was intentionally slowing the vote counting in districts where Calderon leads.

With more than 90% counted:

A las 10:27 de la noche, se reporta un porcentaje de casillas computadas de 90.40 por ciento, que le sigue dando la ventaja a Andrés Manuel López Obrador con un 36.24 por ciento, contra 35.03 por ciento de Felipe Calderón, que le da una ventaja de 1.21 puntos.

With 92.57% of the vote counted:

A las 11:24 de la noche queda el 7.55 por ciento de actas distritales por computar, lo que representa dos millones 418 mil votos….

…A las 11:24 de la noche, se reporta un porcentaje de casillas computadas de 92.45 por ciento, que le sigue dando la ventaja a Andrés Manuel López Obrador con un 36.09 por ciento, contra 35.13 por ciento de Felipe Calderón, que le da una ventaja de 0.96 puntos.

Quedan de sumar el 7.55 por ciento de los sufragios por contabilizar, esto es dos millones 418 mil votos…

Several media reports mention the 5 experts at the IFE who were in charge of the analysis of the rapid count, but give little additional information.

You can find the report of the experts online. They present estimates from three different type of statistical models that they used to determine that the race was too close to call Sunday night. It identifies the academics who authored the report.

The Sunday preliminary results for the Mexican elections were of the ‘quick count’ system. That’s where precincts send their counts directly to the central electoral officials (IFE) electronically. Almost 99% of those reports are now in. Those are the results in which Calderon has a lead of 0.6%.

Go to original.

Today, the official count begins at the district level. All the paperwork and sealed ballot boxes from the precincts will be reviewed at the district. If there are any inconsistencies or problems in the paperwork, the sealed ballot box will be opened, and the votes will be re-counted by hand before certifying the results. (I read that at least o One district had opened their box because the paperwork was missing to begin counting by hand , but now I can’t find the link.) If the paperwork is in order, the district tallies all the votes from the precinct paperwork; certifies it; and sends it upward through IFE.

The NYTimes has a couple of articles about the elections.

The leftist paper, La Jornada, is reporting that precinct paperwork for a poor neighborhood in Mexico State (but part of the Mexico City metropolitan area) has been found at the dump.

Ana Maria Salazar.

In English.

In Spanish.

Or, maybe the WaPo, though it doesn’t seem to update as regularly.

Univision has the most clueless anchors. They keep reporting the aggregate vote percentages, but provide no analysis beyond “the gap keeps getting smaller, and AMLO is gaining.”

A quick look at the disaggregated rapid count votes shows that different percentages of precincts have reported from different regions which have different tendencies.

How hard would it be to do a sub-national analysis using the available data?

I sure hope Mexicans in Mexico have access to better anchors than those that are stranded here with Univision.

Buenas noches. Espero que cuando me despierto manana, haya un presidente nuevo sin violencia o derrota del mercado financiero (pq ya ha bajado el peso….).

I think I’m going to bed.

El Universal has the easiest to access results of the various sites allowed by IFE to published the rapid count results. The margin keeps getting smaller.

Notably, Madrazo did not make an announcement, though his spokesperson did. He urged patience and respect for the rules.

It’s like a train wreck…you don’t want to look but you can’t help yourself.

Less than 500,000 votes difference.

To say that they’ll wait for the formal results., They aren’t going to wait to begin plans for their government because they aer certain the results will confirm their victory.