Category: Uncategorized

Well, there’s not much since campaigning officially ends tonight. The vote is Sunday. Did you know that alcohol is not sold on election day in Mexico? Interesting, huh?

Now that Mexico’s out of the world cup, my Google “Mexico” newsfeed has regular news again, though I can’t say I’m happy about it.

Early in the day, Reuters and Bloomberg were pointing out that Mexican stocks opened low, but by tonight, both were commenting on the overall rise in stocks today.

La Jornada dedicated three stories to a claim by a Mexican journalist that the PAN has used voter registration information target their campaign:

El martes pasado, la periodista Carmen Aristegui denunció que el PAN realizó -con base en el padrón- su propio mapa de georreferencia para identificar a ciudadanos por nombre, apellido, dirección y hasta preferencia electoral, con el fin de utilizarlo en su campaña. Tal operación se pudo descubrir al ingresar a la página de Internet de las Redes por México, de Calderón, con el usuario hildebrando 117 y la contraseña ”captura”. De acuerdo con la legislación electoral, los partidos sólo pueden utilizar el padrón para revisarlo. Cualquier otro uso constituye un delito.

The PAN’s response was to claim that it was a trick by the PRD to make the PAN look bad:

”No caeremos en las provocaciones del Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD). Con mentiras no ganarán la Presidencia de la República”, aseguró la dirigencia nacional que preside Manuel Espino, cuando se le solicitó una entrevista sobre el eventual uso ilegal del padrón. Inclusive anunció que el tema no formará parte de la agenda político-electoral y de paso advirtió a los periodistas que “no esperen ningún comentario sobre las empresas de Diego Zavala”. [both quotes from the first article above]

The IFE has said it would investigate and that only 192 people have legal access to the voter rolls.

The leftist Mexico City daily is continuing to fan the flames of claims that social spending funds are being used for electoral purposes. This time, they claim to have thier own evidence pointing to PAN mischief. La Jornada is also continuing to criticize perceived inaction by Ugalde (the head of the electoral institute) to stop the CCE spots.

And, last but not least, just when we thought the teachers’ strike in Oaxaca was cooling off, things turn for the worse. (see also)

Of course, if you read the other Mexican dailies, you’re likely to get rosier, or at least less biased, news about the national Mexican futbol team or the closing rallies of the campaigns.

So far, 8 typed pages. And still going.

I know. Academic Coach recommends stopping while I’m hot, but I’ve got service work to do tomorrow…so I feel I should keep going while I can.

[And, besides, with my box set of Antonio Aguilar loaded on my iPod (thanks to my good friend Liz back in the D.F), I’m super inspired.]

Update, 11:15pm: Have reviewed Chapter 2 and made list of issues to review/resolve before I can write more. Time to review my notes on class power and institutional change.

About five pages newly written. More revising/parsing/sorting of information.

The use of social welfare for political gain is nothing new. In fact, if governments don’t provide social benefits to earn votes, they would they provide social benefits at all? Since the late 1980s, however, Mexican governments have been a bit more direct in their use of anti-poverty programs for electoral purposes. The most blatant effort was Salinas’s use of Pronasol. Zedillo apparently cleaned up some of the most overt political manipulation when he converted Pronasol into Progresa, though some studies have found that Progresa was also a political tool. (I have a published paper on Pronasol; Tina Green has a good paper on Progresa.)

Recently, two studies have suggested that Oportunidades (the program that replaced Progresa) has also been politically manipulated, primarily by local politicians rather than the national government. This was the topic of the editorial I linked to last week.

Today’s WaPo has an article discussing the findings of the two recent studies of Oportunidades. You can read the press release from one of the studies at the Alianza Civica website.

Just when you start to think that maybe democracy will improve the efficiency of anti-poverty programs or at least prevent the programs from being used as a tool of intimidation, the realities of rural Mexican politics surface.

3-4 pages typed/revised, to finish Intro. 1-2 pages of Chapter 2 written; other parts reviewed/outlined (80% finished).

Lopez Obrador called Calderon’s camp “traffickers in influence,” and Calderon accused Lopez Obrador of supporting “los malosos” in the northern state of Tamaulipas.

The final stop on AMLO’s campaign.

Madrazo was just trying to minimize the defections from his campaign, following the announcement by the CROC last week that it would urge its workers to vote for Lopez Obrador. The CROC has been one of a handful of faithful PRI-affiliated unions since the 1930s. Its leader defended the decision to support the PRD by claiming it was trying to stop the right and saying it had nothing against Madrazo personally. In response, the CTM, the largest of the PRI-affiliated confederations (but still withered compared to its heyday in the 50s-70s) threw Madrazo a final campaign event.

Tomorrow, two of the three largest members of the largest independent labor confederation are expected to reiterate their support for AMLO. They are the social security workers’ union and the union of the national university in Mexico City.

From a story in today’s Milenio covering another meeting between Lopez Obrador and the business elite, this time from Jalisco.

Also, several papers are responding to the suggestion in a WaPo editorial that immigration to the U.S. would increase were AMLO elected:

The country’s pro-market president, Vicente Fox, leaves office this year. His successor will be chosen in an election July 2. The leftist Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador is a strong contender.

If Mr. L?pez Obrador wins and pursues the populist economic policies he’s been associated with in the past, the flow of Mexican arrivals in the United States could accelerate.

What kind of unsubstantiated drivel is that? Why would immigration increase exactly? If AMLO’s such a populist, I’d expect more immigration of the elite than the poor.

Really, now. How uninspired.

Flights, train from Philly, hotel in midtown (with 2 free nights!!), and Yankees tickets all booked. Now just to fill in the rest of the weekend with things to do.

What else could a girl ask for?

[Imagining Brian in background….”A completed book manuscript?”…..]

Ok. Back to work.

Despite low page count (about 2), I read back over what I’ve got so far and made some notes, and I’m happier with what I’ve got than I thought I would be. So, I guess that’s good.

Oh. And I did a decent chunk of work on that service project that is paying my summer salary, and cleaned my desk off.

By taking a picture of my desk, titled “Clutter,” and posting it to Flickr.

Ugalde, who heads the government body that certifies elections in Mexico (IFE), has said that he will announce the results of the ‘quick count’ at 11pm the night of the election. Of course, his announcment may be that the race is too close to call, but he has committed to give a progress report of the count and vote shares, nonetheless. The IFE has also gone through several simulated vote counts over the last month to ensure that there can be no electronic irregularities during the count. [Of course, this is an oblique reference to the computer malfunction in 1988, which lasted a week and, some argue, was used as a cover for the PRI and Salinas to steal the election from Cardenas.]

At the same time, the Secretary of State is working with the parties to ensure that no one claims victory prematurely on election night.

La Jornada is stirring up debate over (television?) ads of the CCE (Employers’ Coordination Board) that urge voters to vote for economic stability.

Two of the ads are posted on the CCE website. The first ad [watch online] shows a young boy with a $20 peso bill (roughly $2 US). The announcer asks him how he would feel if those 20 pesos were only worth 10. The boy looks frightened and asks, incredulously, if that could really happen? Then, the announcer (off screen) says (not to the boy, but to the viewer), that indeed it is possible and that Mexico must protect the economic stability it has created.

The second ad [watch online] shows a number of small shopkeepers opening for the day. The voiceover remarks that in the last 10 years, Mexico has attained the economic institutions necessary for growth, and that when the economy grows, everyone benefits. It then says Mexicans should defend what they have accomplished.

I think there are at least two interesting points raised by the La Jornada coverage. First, the newspaper quotes some people that defend the CCE ad campaign by arguing that the social security union’s website clearly supports Lopez Obrador. Here’s my initial reaction to that comparison:

1. Anyone’s whose visited the SNTSS website will see that it’s so overrun with flash as to be barely tolerable;
2. I’m not convinced many voters who were considering voting for Calderon would visit the SNTSS site;
3. And how many people have internet access anyway (or at least that they’re not using to instant message or fiddle with their myspace?);
4. Is a photo of AMLO and some ugly PRD flash really the same as a very slick ad campaign?; and
5. I’m not really sure that a photo of AMLO with Vega is really going to help AMLO, it might actually hurt him (Vega is Secretary General of the union and is finishing a term as a PRI Deputy. More importantly, Vega’s not very popular with the rank-and-file, many of whom were unhappy with his handling of the last 2 contract negotiations).

Second, another article discusses dissent within the CCE over the ads. This is instructive because it highlights some important (and historical) divisions among the business elite. You can read books by Shadlen or Schneider for the details, but my short version is this:

The CCE was created in the 70s to serve as an umbrella for several existing industrial/commercial organizations regulated by the state. It has been dominated by the stronger industrial interests of the north (that is, Northern Mexico, not necessarily the U.S.). One of the (smaller) members of the CCE is the Canacintra, which represents small and medium industrial firms. Members of the Canacintra benefited from Mexico’s old state-led development model and have suffered from neoliberal reforms. I once read somewhere that they are the Marxists of Mexican business, but I think that’s a little strong. They just benefited from the rents provided by the state for so many decades and were understandably disappointed to see them go.

Apparently, the Canacintra is also unhappy with the CCE ad campaign because presumably they’d rather not see Calderon elected.

Just took care of my APSA travel arrangements and plans for the rest of the holiday weekend in NYC! Yay! I haven’t been there since I left in ’94. When I was there as a student I was working (work study in the women’s studies department, one of two high school secretaries for the JTS high school, and The Gap at 96th and Broadway) 20+ hours a week, so I didn’t see much apart from work, the library, and the WBAR studio.

Due to mucked-up air travel to the Midwest in April, I had a free vouche–so Brian can come, too. And then, I think I have enough Hilton points and airline miles to get 2 free nights at a midtown Hilton. Of course, it took about two hours on the phone and web to figure out how to make it work.

NYC agenda: museums & a Yankees game

Book progress today: 2 pages, but the night is young.

Because I was laughing so hard.

Linked here.

From Milenio.

Could they have found a more unflattering image of Madrazo?

With this nice overview of trends.

5 new pages. (That’s a total of 18 since last Thursday)

Theoretical breakthrough tonight. Some bibliography grunt-work.

Still need to pick up the pace.

Glad that Mexico has made it to round two of the WC? Of course.

But I was really referring to this bit from an article by a Financial Post reporter:

Even if Obrador wins the day, he is no Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan who’s flirted with Cuba’s Castro, threatened to kick out foreign resource companies and to divert oil exports away from the U.S.

Mr. Obrador has talked about renegotiating the North American free trade deal. But so did Canadian Liberal candidate Jean Chretien back in the 1993 election and yet he did absolutely nothing to make good on that “promise”.

Such gringo-bashing is favoured by self-styled populists in Mexico and Canada alike, but fail to resonate with a majority of the populace in either neighbouring country. This is not only because it’s dismissed as rhetoric, but it’s also increasingly appreciated that the NAFTA deal makes inordinate good sense for all three countries.

As for Mexico’s resource industry, there’s nothing to nationalize. Mexico’s federal government owns the monopoly oil company, PEMEX.

And no candidate is talking about privatization either.

On the book: 1 typed page + 5 pages of new outline for next section with detailed notes.

On that service project: Productive meeting with colleague where we agreed on objectives and outlined next steps

On fall team-teaching (in same meeting): Agreed on schedule of topics and books to be ordered