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Over the last week, the Mexican stock and bond market has been fairly volatile. I’ve resisted the temptation to repeat the ups and downs on a daily basis. In any event, Lopez Obrador made a campaign stop up north (i.e., Monterrey) to calm markets and assure the business community that he’s no Hugo Chavez. I’m not sure they’ll believe him, but it’s worth a try.

In any case, when I visited Tec de Monterrey in early June, I was telling some skeptical Regios that though Lopez Obrador is a leftist, he’s not a Hugo Chavez. I suggested that he understood the importance of business support and foreign capital, and I cited his behavior during the desafuero last year as evidence. I’m not sure I convinced them either.

Now that the election is fast approaching, I thought it’d be worth posting links to some of my earlier predictions and analyses.

My November post predicted a 2-way race between AMLO and Calderon. [Don’t be too impressed–that was a fairly obvious one….]

From last April (April 2005), I commented on the Finance Minister’s recognition of AMLO’s restraint and discussed the issue of markets and the attempt to prevent AMLO from running for President.

I still say AMLO’s more likely to turn out to be a Lula than a Chavez, if elected.

Poll results released by Excelsior puts Lopez Obrador ahead by four percentage points, with a margin of errror….not reported.

Go to original

The horserace reporting of polls will end 10 days before the election, during which time the publication of polls is not permitted by law.

5 new pages.

Tomorrow I have a teaching/service meeting at 2pm and will have to spend 1-2 hours preparing in the a.m.

This time by a colleague and friend. On the important issue of women’s human rights in the Mid East.

Go, Sylvia.

The most recent Zogby poll has Calderon narrowly in the lead (methodology).

The spin in the press release implies that Calderon is a sure to win, though their results are not entirely consistent with other Mexican polls.

To me, it all suggests that it’s going to be a very tight finish.

Last week, I received a nice email from Jose Luis Reyna, a sociologist at Colmex whom I’ve never met. He wrote to tell me that he’d cited my research in an op-ed piece that he wrote for El Milenio.

The opinion piece discusses claims that the Secretary of Social Development is using social programs for the poor to earn votes for the PAN. He cites a 2000 paper in which I demonstrate that similar programs were used in the early 1990s to get votes for the PRI. His citation and quote:

El Pronasol de Salinas funcionó con criterios políticos más que asistenciales y no estuvo “dirigido a las estados o regiones más necesitados del país”. (M.Dion. “La economía política del gasto social: el programa de Solidaridad de México, 1988.1994”. Estudios Sociológicos Núm. 53, mayo-agosto de 2000).

Nifty, huh?

2.5 new written pages and 2 revised pages.

Plus an eye exam for new glasses and contacts.

Three new typewritten pages.

Of course, it’s the first real progress since before I went to Monterrey. This service stuff can be really disruptive, even during the summer.

I think I’m back in the groove now; just wish it hadn’t taken so long.

Mance has a nice dog bed, in a coveted spot next to my desk at home. However, it seems that the cats have kicked him out of the bed, and he has to sleep on the hard floor.

More like the omega dog.

Dr. Simi

He’s also mentioned in a recent Reuters piece on the Mexican presidential candidates:

Some of the most colorful campaigners cannot legally run because no political party will back them.

They include oddball magnate Victor Gonzalez, who has adopted the persona of his pharmacy chain’s rotund and grandfatherly mascot, “Dr Simi,” with fluffy white hair and mustache.

Claiming more Mexican fans than Mickey Mouse, and fond of models in mini-skirts, Gonzalez hires people to wear spongy Dr Simi costumes and dance outside his pharmacies.

“I have money but I earned it honestly. I have women but I am single. The people love these things,” he said recently.

Early yesterday, the state government of Oaxaca decided to raid the encampments of striking teachers in the capital city. Many people were injured. La Jornada has several stories covering the events. Though Oaxaca is the center of disident teacher unions, the central leadership of the SNTE headed by Elba Esther Gordillo has denounced the government action, and other sections of the teachers’ union have announced their solidarity with the Oaxacan teachers.

In the aftermath, the national Secretary of State (and former Secretary of Labor) has announced that there will be no more displays of force in Oaxaca; human rights groups are calling foul; and Subcommandante Marcos chimed in.

Or, perhaps, pre- and post-debate.

There’s this NYTimes article from June 4.

And, there’s this LATimes article from June 15.

Both about AMLO.

Refoma’s latest poll gives AMLO a narrow lead over Calderon following last week’s debates. This is signifcant since the Reforma polls were the first to suggest Calderon had a lead in early May. Since AMLO claimed the May polls were bogus when they said he was behind, it will be interesting to see how he responds to news that he is now ahead.

Trivia tidbit: The lead pollster for Reforma is a U of Michigan political science Ph.D. (ITAM professor, Publications, and CV)

Here’s the Bloomberg update.

Two.

And the second one is tiny.

This poll suggests that AMLO has a slight edge over Calderon, even a little beyond the margin of error. It’s the first to be published (that I know of, since Reforma requires a subscription for their content) since the televised debates last week.

Here’s Bloomberg’s coverage.

Here’s the Milenio article in Spanish.

UPDATE: The poll by El Universal suggests that Calderon has a narrow lead. Just goes to show how subtle differences in question wording and order may have an effect on poll results.

From my periodic series of photos of people in funny suits…..

It’s periodic because I only seem to be able to take these photos when I’m in Mexico.

Other photos from my Monterrey trip are posted to flickr.

Today I spent time trying to figure out how to keep a baby possum out of our kitchen (getting a trap from the county animal control and taking a trip to Lowe’s to figure out how to cover the hole s/he uses behind the oven), getting a new Mexico guide for my trip tomorrow (since I gave my old guide to a D.F. friend who was planning a trip to Oaxaca when I last left Mexico; getting the new guide required stops at 2 BnN), packing for my trip tomorrow (clothes and work-related stuff); and fending off a really bad headache (unsuccessfully).

So no progress.

And there will probably be no posts for the weekend, since I’m taking a trip to Monterrey to set up a new study abroad program for Summer 07 at ITESM. It’s not the D.F. (by a long shot) but it will have to do. At least there will be real tacos and chilaquiles, and maybe some fruit salad or Mexican-style sushi (which reminds me….I should tell you my story about trying to find good, authentic chilaquiles in Atlanta, sometime). My trip may also include a baseball game, but only because I need good photos to help recruit for the study abroad (uhmmm, right).

Anything else I should do?

Stay on task.

On YouTube.

Typed up more notes. Not as much as I’d like.

But also had a very productive 2 hour meeting for a service project that I am working on. Since the project is paying some of my summer salary, I shouldn’t complain too much. Also, I handled some things pending for a scouting trip I’m taking to Monterrey on Thursday to set up a study abroad for next summer.

Tomorrow, I’m doing nothing but staying at home to work, though.