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I thought this had already happened. Elba Esther has five days to appeal.

Fast forward through the EDOMEX vote tabulations to the comparison of various campaign slogans/commercials of Calderon and those paid for by third parties (meaning…non-political parties).

I don’t claim to know Mexican electoral law, so I couldn’t say whether the third party videos cross the line.

But it is interesting to observe the similarities between Calderon’s message and those of some of the third parties. Studies have been done of the rhetoric and style of campaign videos in the U.S., and I am not familiar with similar studies on Mexico. These videos suggest a good place to start. (If the video disappears from AMLO’s site, I’ll post it to youtube later.)

Lopez Obrador has posted two more videos to his website, alleging that both illustrate instances of fraud. This time, the videos come from Tabasco & Puebla and Guanajuato (again) & Tlaxcala.

I have not watched them, so I offer no comment on their content.

Updated to add: Plus video of Mexico state and commercials.

I’m not sure how many pages I wrote/revised today (my guess would be between 6 and 12), but I have finished mostly complete versions of 2 chapters (one is about 8K words, the other about 16K). I’ve sent them to three trustworthy and kind colleagues who have offered to read them.

Now, I turn to revising several empirical chapters, which should go more quickly than the writing of these last two has gone.

As regular commenter, Jose, points out, the local precinct official in the video corroborates the IFE explanation that he was moving incorrectly cast ballots from one box to another, which is permitted by law. That seems reasonable. As Jose points out, the PAN has already questioned the credibility of other AMLO claims…suggesting if he’ll stretch the truth with the video, why not others?

Given the heated passions and a tendency to not necessarily listen to reason in such circumstances, it’s entirely possible that this point will be lost on many supporters of AMLO, who will continue to insist that it is suggestive of fraud.
Others will just shake their heads in disbelief that AMLO’s camp will try to use any shred of impropriety to justify their claims of fraud. If AMLO’s camp understood what the video depicted but chose to present it as otherwise, Lopez Obrador will lose a lot of credibility at home and abroad. (Ok…maybe only with those paying attention….)

As I said in the original post, it’s not really easy to interpret what is happening in the videos, which makes them open to several interpretations. It’s certainly not as obvious as the videos of Bejarano stuffing wads of money in his pants.

I guess I should add some translation to my comments regarding the phone conversations in the earlier post, too. A benign interpretation of the conversation between la maestra and the PRI governor of Tamaulipas would be that she was calling him to tell him that if he’s willing to work with the PAN, he should let them know because they were assuming such PRI governors would stick with the PRI no matter what.

Presumably, the PRI realized early on July 2 that Calderon would win and was mobilizing to generate good will with the frontrunner in order to solidify their relationship for the future. Why Elba Esther was the person chosen to make such calls is another question (considering she’s was expelled by the PRI to my recollection). [And the answer probably has to do with personal ties she may have to that governor or other folks in that particular state. Perhaps other PRIistas were calling other PRI governors in other states.]

Also, my phrase “get out the vote,” I realize in retrospect, doesn’t probably translate into the Mexican context well. In the U.S., parties regularly ‘get out the vote,’ by calling voters to remind them to vote, providing rides to polling places, and generally helping publicize when/where to vote. In the U.S., this is not considered undemocratic. But in the Mexican context, such activities sound too much like the old PRI machine at work to be viewed in the same light. In Mexico, ‘getting out the vote’ would imply coercion or at least buying of votes with food, drink, or other promises.

Are the recorded conversations smoking guns indicating widespread voter fraud at top levels in Tamaulipas? Probably not. I’m not sure the governor would even be the right person to call in the state if you wanted to buy an election.

Are the calls indiscreet? Yes, definitely.

Do they reveal the types of unsavory relationships common in politics? Yes.

Does Mexico have a monopoly on unsavoriness in politics? No.

Yesterday, AMLO presented his evidence of inconformities in the election to the election officials and to the press.

The 30 minute video is also posted on his website, along with two audio conversations (with transcripts). The video shows some ballots set aside at a polling place, then later someone putting ballots in the box (which only the voter is supposed to do). The IFE responded that the official was moving ballots to the correct box. [There are separate ballots, color coded, for each election, and voters are supposed to put the ballots in separate boxes. The IFE explained that someone is putting Diputado ballots in the Diputado box box after they were mistakenly put in the President box by the voters.]

Then, it cuts to ballot counting in another state, though it’s not as clear what we’re supposed to notice is wrong with that picture. AMLO says the officials are changing the vote tallies in favor of the PAN.

The first audio is a conversation between Elba Esther, the head of the teachers’ union and former 2nd in command in the PRI who had recently become more cozy with the PAN and Fox, talking with the PRI governor of Tamaulipas (the coastal state bordering Texas). The transcript has Elba Esther discussing some of her organization’s polls and asking the governor which way he’s leaning. She says it’s clear that the PRI is out and would like to know if he’s leaning toward the PAN, as she thinks he might. She indicates that someone from the PAN may be calling him, if they haven’t already, and she suggests that he call “Felipe” (presumably, Calderon’s people) to let him know where he stands so it doesn’t look bad. To me, it sounds more like they are conspiring to ‘get out the vote’ in support of the PAN, but maybe I’m just naive. (With la maestra, I guess anything is possible.)

From the transcript:

EEG. NUESTRA ENCUESTA TIENE, POR UNA RED QUE ARMAMOS EN TODO EL PAIS, (ANDELE) DE 6,364 CUESTIONARIOS APENAS LLEVAMOS, DE 14,000 LLEVAMOS 6,000, PERDON. Y VAN ASI: 34.1 PAN, 22.96 PRI. 33.68, PRD. YA SE CAYO EL PRI, EH, (MUY BIEN) ENTONCES HAY QUE SABER COMO ACTUAR

GOB. AS1 ES MAESTRA.

EEG HAY QUE SABER COMO ACTUAR Y AQUI SI VIENE LA DEClSlON DE FONDO. PORQUE LA INFORMACION QUE HAY ACA EN LOS ESTADOS DE NUESTROS AMIGOS, (AJA), TAMAULIPAS Y COAHUILA ESTAN CON TODO POR EL PRI Y VAN A HABLAR, NO SE SI YA HABLARON, VALE MAS QUE USTEDES SE ADELANTEN, SI AS1 LO DECIDEN, CON , FELIPE, PARA VENDER LO QUE TENGAN, EL PRI YA SE CAYO, EH.

GOB. NO, ESO NOS QUEDA MUY CLARO.

EEG. NO SE POR DONDE ANDES, POR AZUL O POR AMARILLO, PERO SI VA POR AZUL QUE ES LO QUE PENSAMOS, VALE MAS HABLARLE A FELiPE Y DEClRLE KiGO, NO, PARA NO QUEDAR MAL.

GOB. SI, YO CREO QUE TODO VA BIEN

EEG. VAMOS A SACAR AHORITA TODO ELVOTO CIUDADANO.

GOB. AQUl ESTAMOS HACIENDO LA CHAMBA. EH. POR AH/ … ESTE..

EEG. POR ESO QUISE HABLAR. PORQUE EL INFORME QUE TIENEN ES QUE TODO PARA EL PRI. Y LO ES VERDAD, PORQUE ESO ES INSTITUCIONAL. ANTE LA CAIDA, CREO QUE LO INTERESANTE ES HABLAR CON FELIPE Y VENDERSELO.

GOB. AS1 ES.

EEG. NO?,

GOB. ENTONCES HABLAR CON MI VECINO, TAMBIEN, PARA VER COMO ANDA

EEG. COMO ANDAN, PERO YA, YA SE VA DESPEJANDO. YA EL VOTO DURO YA SALIO. BUENO, YO TE COMUNICO Y HAY ESPERO TU DECISION.

GOB. OKEY, LE AGRADEZCO MUCHO MAESTRA.

EEG. SI TE DECIDES POR AZUL, NO LO VAYAS A ………( CLARO) UN ABRAZOTE.

GOB. IGUALMENTE, GUSTO EN SALUDARLA, MAESTRA., ESTAMOS EN CONTACTO.

EEG. IGüHiMENTE.

[Updated to add: Now that I’ve listened to the audio, I must admit it sounds worse than it reads.]

The second audio is a phone conversation between a member of the Fox cabinet and the governor of Tamaulipas. This is presumably the call that Elba Esther hinted at above. From the transcript, it’s not clear what they are talking about. From the transcript:

SCT. EUGENIO

GOB. SECRETARIO BUENAS TARDES, ¿COMO ESTAS? PEDRO

SCT PUES MUY AGRADECIDO, CREO QUE TE SOBREGIRASTE.

GOB. NO HOMBRE, JA, JA, JA,

SCT CON MUCHO GUSTO Y CON MUCHO APRECIO.

GOB. NO, ME DA MUCHO GUSTO, LO HAGO CON MUCHO AFECTO Y ADEMAS NOS HAS AYUDADO BASTANTE.

SCT. NO, CUENTA CON TODO …. QUE VAS A VER A ….. MANUEL ESPINO

SCT MANUEL ESPINO

GOB. NO SE …. HABLE CON EL HOY EN LA MAÑANA, ECHAMOS UNA PLATICADA.

SCT. ME DlJO QUE LO MEJOR ES QUE TE DIGA QUE SI PODlA ECHARTE UN GRITO Y PEDIRTE QUE LE ECHARAS LA MANO.

GOB. ANDALE. SI. QUE NECESITA.

SCT COSA QUE HAGO CON MUCHO GUSTO. PUES NO SE QUE TE VAYA A PEDIR.

GOB. HA BUENO. FIJATE VOY LLEGANDO AQUí A TOLUCA. VOY A UNA REUNION CON GOBERNADORES DE NUESTRO PARTIDO. Y ANALIZAR QUE VAMOS A HACER … YO CREO QUE HAY QUE IRNOS CON LA …. CON EL IFE Y AGUANTAR VARA.

SCT NO CREO QUE VAYA EN ESE SENTIDO. PERO DE TODAS MANERAS YO TE LO QUERIA PLANTEAR. ME DlJO OYE, TU TIENES CONTACTO CON ALGUNOS QUE SEAN AMIGOS TUYOS, LE DIJE, PUES DOS O TRES QUE SON AMIGOS, LOS DEMAS SOLO SON CONOCIDOS.

GOB. AS1 ES.

SCT PUES SI LES PUEDES ECHAR UN GRITO Y DECIRLES QUE NOS ECHEN UNA MANO, PUES CON TODO GUSTO LO HAGO, SOBRE TODO PORQUE HAY QUE MANTENER LA …

GOB. CLARO, NO, ESTAMOS NOSOTROS CON ESO, … AS1 ES, ESA ES NUESTRA CONVlCClON Y AS1 LO HA DETERMINADO UN GRUPO DE AMIGOS, COLEGAS, HACE UNAS SEMANAS, CUANDO VIMOS QUE ESTO PODlA CERRARSE, PODlA OCURRIR.

SCT YO NO LE VEO NINGUN PROBLEMA, CONOCIENDO A LOS QUE CONOZCO, Y QUE CON TODO GUSTO HARlA YO EL TRAMITE.

GOB. NO TE AGRADEZCO MUCHO QUE ME HAYAS HABLADO PEDRO, CUENTA CON NOSOTROS EN ESE SENTIDO. SOMOS VARIOS COLEGAS QUE ESTAMOS EN ESE TENOR. Y DE HECHO

SCT. UN SALUDO

GOB. IGUALMENTE PEDRO GRACIAS GUSTO EN SALUDARTE.

The officials have until early September to review the complaints and make a decision.

After a record-setting 12 pages finished after 3 a.m., today I have finished 3 so far.

The night is young.

Update: Another ~2 before bedtime.

(Updates 2:48 a.m.) More revisions, 2 pages of notes, and   9    12 new pages.

Boy, do I really need my 9am chiropractor visit after sitting at my desk all afternoon/night.

7 pages and some outlining/reorganization of my argument.

Here’s the front page of the leftist press.

And here’s a picture of the meeting in the Zocalo.

Both from La Jornada

Over the last week, I haven’t been keeping close tabs on my daily progress. I made some organizational changes to Chapters 1 & 2. On Chapter 2, I took notes/wrote several pages.

Goal is to finish Chapter 2 today or tomorrow to circulate 1 & 2 to a couple of colleagues.

This interview is worth reading. I particularly like this point, made by Calderon:

It is more effective, in order to reduce migration, to build one kilometer of one highway in Guanajuato, than ten kilometers of the wall [in] Texas or Arizona.

The first paragraph of Greg’s post made me smile.

And we wonder why even our bright students don’t quite understand Latin American politics?

The full transcript in Spanish.

IFE does not have an English version online.

The IFE will certify the results, and another institution will declare the winner. Any effort to challenge the results will be handled by the TRIFE. It is likely that Lopez Obrador will mount a challenge to the results, and according to the ex-President of the IFE, such a challenge would not be out of the ordinary given the closeness of the race.

I think the election is over now, though.

Front pages of today’s paper

It looks like Calderon will soon be declared the new President of Mexico with less than 1% of the vote separating him from Lopez Obrador.

IFE has said in the past that it would not declare the result official until 100.00% of the results were in, given the closeness of the race. If IFE cannot demonstrate that 100% of the casillas/precincts have submitted their results, it will leave room for Lopez Obrador to cry foul.

And if 100% do indeed submit their results, the IFE would do well to investigate publicized accounts in the states of Mexico and Veracruz that IFE ballots and precinct materials were found in dumps. Unfortunately, until IFE adequately explains those events (stolen and planted material? phonies?), many AMLO supporters will distrust the results. That could create more governability problems than Calderon will already have with the divided Congress.

I sure would hate to be Ugalde. I don’t envy him his job.

Graph from El Universal.

Read their article.

And AMLO has a very narrow lead:

A las cuatro y cuarenta y siete de la tarde López Obrador con el 36.86 por ciento contra 34.61 por ciento de Calderón Hinojosa.

[Updates follow…]

And with more than 70% counted:

A las cinco y cuarenta de la tarde López Obrador con el 36.87 por ciento contra 34.56 por ciento de Calderón Hinojosa.

With 75% counted:

A las seis y cuarto de la tarde de 2.20 puntos la diferencia en favor del perredista. Se han computado más de 30 millones de votos. Faltarían diez millones de sufragios por contar.

With just over 80% counted:

A las 7:17 de la noche Lóipez Obrador contabiliza 36.78% contra 34.77% de Calderón Hinojosa. Se han computado 33 millones 516 mil 382 votos.

With 84% counted:

A las ocho y cuarto de la noche López Obrador tiene una ventaja de a 1.81 puntos con 84% de casillas computadas. López Obrador 36.53% contra 34.74% de Calderón Hinojosa….

…La votación de recabada hasta esta hora de 35 millones de sufragios, faltando cerca de siete millones de votos por contabilizar.

López Obrador tiene un colchón a su favor de más de 450 mil votos sobre Calderón Hinojosa….

…Fa.tan por contabilizar actas del norte del país como Chihuahua,Durango, Jalisco, Baja California, Sonora y en el sur, Yucatán.

Calderon has more support in the North, so the lead Lopez Obrador currently enjoys is likely to shrink even more. The PAN held a press conference and announced that the PRD was intentionally slowing the vote counting in districts where Calderon leads.

With more than 90% counted:

A las 10:27 de la noche, se reporta un porcentaje de casillas computadas de 90.40 por ciento, que le sigue dando la ventaja a Andrés Manuel López Obrador con un 36.24 por ciento, contra 35.03 por ciento de Felipe Calderón, que le da una ventaja de 1.21 puntos.

With 92.57% of the vote counted:

A las 11:24 de la noche queda el 7.55 por ciento de actas distritales por computar, lo que representa dos millones 418 mil votos….

…A las 11:24 de la noche, se reporta un porcentaje de casillas computadas de 92.45 por ciento, que le sigue dando la ventaja a Andrés Manuel López Obrador con un 36.09 por ciento, contra 35.13 por ciento de Felipe Calderón, que le da una ventaja de 0.96 puntos.

Quedan de sumar el 7.55 por ciento de los sufragios por contabilizar, esto es dos millones 418 mil votos…

Several media reports mention the 5 experts at the IFE who were in charge of the analysis of the rapid count, but give little additional information.

You can find the report of the experts online. They present estimates from three different type of statistical models that they used to determine that the race was too close to call Sunday night. It identifies the academics who authored the report.